Comment by lelanthran
1 month ago
> This is the future I dreamed of when I was a kid, and I'm not so cynical as to let the dying of a trade sour me to this objectively incredible technology.
I feel that you should take a longer-term view of things...
If an AI can vibe code from the requirements of the average white-collar worker, we're not talking about the death of a trade. Or even two trades. We're talking about the death of almost all white-collar jobs.
Development paid a lot more than other white-collar work because it was harder, and fewer people could actually do it. How fast do you think the easier work will get replaced if the hardest one is replaced? For the remaining white-collar roles that consist solely of skills achievable by a border collie, how much do you think they'd pay?
Yeah this is one of the most perplexing things about this "dying of a trade" narrative.
Software development isn't just the act of producing a deliverable that is being gate kept by people who use their own body. Software development has become specialized enough that it is often highly domain specific. To replace the "trade" you need to automate the software part and the domain knowledge part. If you can do both, you've automated every single white collar job in existence.
Since it is possible to write software for machine learning, which is used to solve problems that classical algorithms failed to solve, the amount of problems that cannot be solved using software is shrinking rapidly. If you can write software for any domain, you can solve any domain by using said software.
General purpose software generation can be reduced to AGI completeness. In a way, it is the last job that can be automated.