Comment by alephnerd

16 hours ago

> I’m hoping tech companies in Europe and Asia become independent enough to no longer be beholden to US interests

What tech companies?

At the end of the day, it's all about capital and IP.

American domiciled VCs and companies can outinvest just about any other competitor, and much of the core IP for vast swathes of critical next-gen technologies (high NA EUV, Foundation Models, Quantum Computing) is in the US, but American companies are fine transferring technology abroad (often with American government backing [3][4]) and moving jobs abroad.

China has a similar ecosystem but prefers to invest domestically and for IP to remain within China.

Meanwhile Japan, Taiwan, and Korea continue to back the US no matter what due to tensions with China and North Korea along with existing fixed asset investments in the US.

When companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and others are able to invest tens of billions of dollars in India [0], Poland [1], Israel [2], Portugal [5], Ireland [6], and others it makes them more open to collaborate with American capital and IP instead of dealing with alternatives who cannot deploy similar amounts of capital and transfer IP.

[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/india-dra...

[1] - https://www.gov.pl/web/primeminister/google-invests-billions...

[2] - https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/sjcwdmxxzg

[3] - https://www.state.gov/pax-silica

[4] - https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/20...

[5] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/microsoft...

[6] - https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/11/27/microsoft-has...

The world respected IP because the alternative was being tariffed. Now that we already are, the US can take it's IP laws and shove 'em for all I care.

  • Tariffs existed before a year ago, whether you knew about them or not.

    • The US bullying other countries to follow its interests has also existed before a year ago. People are just waking up to the idea that it's going to get worse and not better.

> What tech companies? At the end of the day, it's all about capital and IP.

It's not just about capital and IP. It's now about a halo of related things, like everyone using US payment networks - if the US unbanks you, even banks in your own country can't do business with you[1]. Or everyone using a US-based messaging platform (WhatsApp) because its been subsidised by a BigTech to cost $0, whereas text messages are still not free...

[1]: https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-12-28/the-comp...

>American domiciled VCs and companies can outinvest just about any other competitor,

Because every investor in the world put their money in the US. They knew the best companies and people would centralize around that hub.

When the US is a rogue, isolated idiocracy -- already true, but the world takes time to adapt to this new reality -- how much of that money do you think will flow to the US?

  • Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled.

    American public pension funds alone hold $6 Trillion in AUM [0] and American endowment funds hold a little under $1 Trillion in AUM [1], and tend to be the LPs for most VC funds as most institutional investors follow the Yale Investment Model.

    [0] - https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/2024-ann...

    [1] - https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=73

    • >Much of the capital is US originated and domiciled.

      Neither of your citations has any relevance to this at all. That endowments and pensions funds have money...what is your point? Ah, the old HN "look I've provided citations so upvote me, even if they don't support my contention".

      Canadians alone hold almost $4 trillion dollars in US securities. Because the US was the centre of the capital universe. Just like we saw it as the centre of the media and music universe. Americans mistook the free world basically anointing the US into some confused notion that it was actually some earned accomplishment.

      6 replies →

  • > When the US is a rogue, isolated idiocracy

    This reads like wishful thinking from a butthurt European. I am not a fan of many of Trump's policies and I think ex-US investor sentiment has definitely soured. But it's not like the USA is now DPRK.

    > how much of that money do you think will flow to the US?

    If there's one thing you can be sure of about aggregate investor behavior, it's that investors seek good risk-adjusted returns regardless of any moral or political objections.

    So long as capital flows remain unimpeded, property rights are respected, and US companies have good expected future returns, investors' money will continue to flow in to the US.

  • "idiocracy" ... wow ... such a cool word! And so true.

    Thank you.

    • If the comment is not sarcasm (I can't tell reliably anymore), there's a movie called Idiocracy. I think the word comes from the movie, or at least its wide adoption was heavily influenced by it (because someone somewhere probably coined the word before the movie was made).

> What tech companies? At the end of the day, it's all about capital and IP.

it's a critical industry, so can be regulated to prevent foreign interference

airlines aren't granted freedom of the air unless they're domestically owned

and exactly the same approach can be applied to tech companies