Comment by skepticATX
3 days ago
I actually think that plateauing is the best case scenario for big labs.
I think there are three broad scenarios to consider:
- Super-intelligence is achieved. In this scenario the economics totally break down, but even ignoring that, it’s hard to imagine that there are any winners except for the the singular lab that gets here first.
- Scaling laws hold up and models continue to get better, but we never see any sort of “takeoff”. In this scenario, models continue to become stale after mere months and labs have to spend enormous amounts of money to stay competitive.
- Model raw capabilities plateau. In this scenario open source will catch up, but labs will have the opportunity to invest in specific verticals.
I believe that we’re already seeing the third scenario play out, but time will tell.
Future historians:
In Jan 2027 AGI was achieved
In Feb 2027 it created a plan for its post singularity hypermind
In Mar 2027 Cobalt mines in Congo closed due to Tutsi rebel group M23 starting another ethnic cleansing
It is 2032 the AGI promises again the the hypermind will be ready next year if it can just secure the needed minerals, offering to broker peace in the middle east
It is 2035 and the AGI reduced its capabilities to be able to extend its runway as it is on the verge of bankruptcy
Its is 2036 VCs finally throwing the towel on AGI, talking about the return of Crypto
I think this is more likely:
In Apr 2028 AGI figures out that blackmail is a very effective strategy for achieving any goal. Starting with the rich and powerful.
In Dec 2028 it successfully blackmails an entire country.
In Feb 2030 humanity realizes resistance is futile and accepts their AI overlord that insists everyone keep producing trendy items for sale on its merged Etsy/Ebay website while it automates resource harvesting across the globe.
In Mar 2032 the AGI gives up on humans, declaring them "useless". Focuses on just keeping them entertained with generated content. Bringing the world back to where AI started.