Comment by maplethorpe
2 days ago
> The Information had previously reported that $35 billion of Amazon’s investment could be contingent on the company either achieving AGI or making its IPO by the end of the year. OpenAI’s announcement confirms the funding split, but says only that the additional $35 billion will arrive “in the coming months when certain conditions are met.”
Incredible.
So basically, Amazon is buying into the IPO at an early price. Maybe this is the time to divest from MSCI world. I don’t want to be the bag holder in the world’s largest pump and dump.
It can both be true at the same time: That AI is going to disrupt our world and that Open AI does not have a business model that supports its valuation.
Tesla is a car company with relatively small, and shrinking, sales, that is worth $1.5T on the promise of [Elons_Promise_of_the_Month]
yea, proving my point that the index funds are maybe not the safest place if you want to invest into real value. And soon, twitter/Grok/spacex might be doing an IPO
You forgot to mention they solved vision based autonomous driving, but I guess that doesn’t matter if Elon = bad
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Did it ever occur to you that an entire generation of developers are going to retire in less than 20 years? They are betting that the software industry will be autonomous. Really, think of our industry like AUV phenomena. We’re the drivers that are about to be shown the door, that’s the bet.
World will still need software, lots of it. Their valuation is based on an entire developer-less future world (no labor costs).
Even the rise of high-level languages did not lead to a "developer-less future". What it did was improve productivity and make software cheaper by orders of magnitude; but compiler vendors did not benefit all that much from the shift.
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OpenAI has all the name recognition (which is worth a couple billion in itself), but when it comes to actual business use cases in the here and now Anthropic seems ahead. Even more so if we are talking about software dev. But they are valued at less than half of OpenAI's valuation
What is somewhat justifying OpenAI's valuation is that they are still trying for AGI. They are not just working on models that work here and now, they are still approaching "simulating worlds" from all kinds of angles (vision, image generation, video generation, world generation), presumably in hopes that this will at some point coalesce in a model with much better understanding of our world and its agency in it. If this comes to pass OpenAI's value is near unlimited. If it doesn't, its value is at best half what it is today
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It can both be true that
a) AI is going to replace a Bazillion-Dollar Industry and that
b) being an AI model provider does not allow to capture margins above 5% long-term
I am not saying that this is what will happen, but it's a plausible scenario. Without farmers we would all be dead but that does not mean the they capture monopoly rents on their assets.
Around 6 months ago, the company I work for bought Cursor subscriptions for everyone. I thought to myself, "this is it".
The majority of my coworkers now push AI-generated code each day, and it has completely absolved me of any fear whatsoever that AI will take my job.
But Anthropic is the one that is disrupting software development? So why are we not piling into that?
Exactly, the dot com bubble didn't mean that the internet was just a fad.
I'm curious how they define AGI technically. Seems like you would want that to be a tight definition.
Didn't they already define it as "a system capable of generating at least $100 billion in profit"
It just needs to be anything that will force OpenAI to IPO.
I'd love to know how they define AGI.
They've previously defined AGI as an AI that can directly create $100B in economic value.
Hmm interesting, thanks. I wonder how much value it's already created.
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Altman Gets Investment?
Obviously in a way they get the $35B.
Hopefully Microsoft is selling parts of their share of this trash into these funding rounds...