Comment by MichaelZuo
3 months ago
You dont believe it increases the probability that Anthropic may be hiding other unsavory things too?
I can see a very charitable person only seeing a small increase, but a literally zero change, and therefore zero relevance, seems absurd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Are you confusing me with someone else’s comment?
This doesn’t address my question on what you believe.
Read the beetle example in that article. It's exactly on point.
You believe Anthropic is a rare subspecies of beetle (an "unsavory" company) based on a certain pattern on its back (certain NDA-related behavior). I and several others here have noted that lots of companies have that pattern on their backs. Which means that you are basing your conclusion on weak evidence. If you use Bayes Theorem to calculate the actual probability, you'll find that "[trying] to hide the existence of secret non-disparagement agreements" barely moves the needle at all. Does it move the needle? Sure. But much less than you think.
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