Comment by ferris-booler

IMO your question is the largest unknown in the ML research field (neural net interpretability is a related area), but the most basic explanation is "if we can always accurately guess the next 'correct' word, then we will always answer questions correctly".

An enormous amount of research+eng work (most of the work of frontier labs) is being poured into making that 'correct' modifier happen, rather than just predicting the next token from 'the internet' (naive original training corpus). This work takes the form of improved training data (e.g. expert annotations), human-feedback finetuning (e.g. RLHF), and most recently reinforcement learning (e.g. RLVR, meaning RL with verifiable rewards), where the model is trained to find the correct answer to a problem without 'token-level guidance'. RL for LLMs is a very hot research area and very tricky to solve correctly.