Comment by pendenthistory
3 days ago
My biggest problem right now is thanks to Claude I'm making much faster progress on my passion project and I'm working in a maniac state almost, but then I remind myself that it's probably meaningless because if things progress as they have, anyone can just copy what I've built, and if we get to AGI all bets are off anyway. Balancing these two moods is tough. Lots of sleepless nights lately. Thankfully I have a large financial cushion to fall back on, but then again the market could tank 50% this year and then even that wouldn't be much of a consolation. Can't be in cash either, opportunity cost too large.
> robably meaningless because if things progress as they have, anyone can just copy what I've built
Most other people lack the prerequisite skills even with Claude at their disposal. And it was always the case that other people could copy your things, it's just the effort was much higher, now it's more accessible.
Regardless, I would suggest you don't let this deter you from bringing something new into this world. It might have enough value to make it all worth it. Or not, but not releasing it you won't find out for sure.
I like working on it and will definitely release it, just don't want to set myself up for disappointment later. Try to enjoy the process of creation instead. But, it could also be that it's something that has value for a few years, and maybe that's enough.
In a similar boat. I’m running “ClaudClaw” a clone of Openclaw to enforce discipline in my limited free time to get an AI agency off the ground, in order to try to escape the miserable corporate grind. On the one hand, it’s a massive productivity boost, on the other hand, this tech is going to further hollow out the middle class everywhere and make so many people redundant. I don’t have the luxury to simply quit and focus on it full time.
Leaving your job has a different sense of finality now. When time comes to look for a new job, will the job even exist anymore? Makes the risk calculus a bit different. Maybe there won't be mass unemployment, but even a modest increase in SWE unemployment could make it so much harder and more stressful to find a job.
We’re already seeing the impact of AI in the jobs market for junior devs, and in marketing and more. So there’s unquestionably going to be a rough adjustment period. My thought on it is to build something concrete that I own, and take advantage of the disruption of possible, instead of being crushed by it.
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How are you using it to enforce discipline? And whats the business case for the AI agency? Helping other businesses adopt or something like that?
I'm in a pretty similar position. I've been wanting to make something to align incentives between advertisers and the people who see ads for years. Finally sat down with Claude last month and now I have a working prototype. It feels surreal, I'm not a 10x programmer by any means. If I can do it, so can a lot of other people. It does feel like I don't have much time to capitalize on the first mover advantage.
But on the other hand... The things we really believe in we'd still cheer if someone else executed the idea better than us. Sure, we might make less money, but the idea gets to live.
And the odds of someone executing better didn't really go up, ai is just average across the board. So at worst, the odds of someone executing our ideas as well as us went up. Could be worse.
Sell enough that, if the market tanks, you won't regret it. Keep enough in that, if the market doesn't tank, you also won't regret it.
For me, I moved some money out of the stock market. The PE ratios are just too high to make sense. (I mean, I think that the competition is bonds, and the interest rates on bonds being lower means that stocks can support a higher PE. Still, I think the current level is probably insane. I especially suspect that AI stocks are going to get hammered, so I reduced my exposure there.) But I didn't get completely out; for medium- to long-term money, I still want to be there.
Could I miss some gains? Absolutely. But I also could dodge some losses.
Hey you can always tell yourself to take it easy because in 6 months the AI will get better and you could build the whole thing that's preventing you from sleep, in 30 minutes in the future. Unless you are worrying about the progress towards AGI.
Make sure to fix sleep issues. Maniac state + lack of sleep can get you in some serious trouble. Disconnect for a while.