Comment by game_the0ry
12 hours ago
Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy
What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its:
Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) = Busting economy
I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post covid boom was an exception.
Over-hiring is a myth IMO.
Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed.
This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore
(1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.
And also the section 174 change too, which suddenly increased the tax bill for any companies doing software development.
That has been undone now, though.
Section 174 as it stands means R&D costs companies less, not more. It would be bullish for the SWE profession. It’s still around
Has it? I haven’t seen anything about that.
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