Comment by daheza
7 hours ago
I don't believe its over hiring I believe its offshoring. Blaming Covid after so many years doesn't make sense.
7 hours ago
I don't believe its over hiring I believe its offshoring. Blaming Covid after so many years doesn't make sense.
People have been booggeyman'ing offshoring since before I entered the industry and it's never been all that significant of a factor. Time zones are a big piece but there are a lot of other factors that make offshoring less appealing than a naive analysis of Fully Loaded Cost per head.
If offshoring started before your time, that might be coloring your perception.
I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years when the savings didn't materialize/live up to expectations, companies started hiring on-shore again (and even paid better!). Now, offshoring is just one more tool. It still exists, it's still used - but it didn't destroy domestic programming market.
Personally, I think AI will follow the same trajectory. Its gonna be rough, but then it won't be the 'magic bullet' management wants, and they'll start hiring again. AI (just like offshoring) will still be there, still be used - it will just be a tool rather then a complete replacement.
How would you it hasn't been a significant factor? We've had offshoring this whole time.
The US tech labor market is much more of a seller's market than when I started. Domestic demand has grown faster than supply, despite any offshoring that has also happened.
The hiring boom was post 2019, in the article's chart it is easy to see. It was a multi year hiring boom, that only slowed up in 2023/2024.