Comment by bhouston
13 hours ago
An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative:
https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/
This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the long term the truth will come out, but in the near term, it could be obscured.
I'm not much of a gambler, but I bet on an MMA match once when I was in Vegas. I was informed that the payouts (or lack thereof) were determined by whatever the judges stated at the end of the night, even if the call was controversial and later invalidated. So this sort of thing does affect other forms of gambling, although obviously on a less significant scale.
The effect of this is that those markets should dry up as the information quality is so poor. So bad that even insiders are taking risk by betting on an outcome.
Unlike the regular markets though, which are dominated by smart money, these markets are dominated by degen gamblers and idiots, so I guess they just shrug it off.
This comment was originally upvoted to +6, and then all of a sudden this was at 1 point, oh, now -1. Strange voting pattern. Nobody even voiced disagreement with this post.
What censorship does Israel do?
I guess for a start they won't let me view this article with a VPN on.
Check the article linked in that comment.
you forgot to put /s at the end of your comment, yes?