Comment by cat-turner

1 day ago

Let's make a bet on how bad it can get

I can place a bet that by 2027 we will have 1 bet and a payout on a bet that predicts a horrible catastrophe.

12 comments

cat-turner

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tptacek  1 day ago

I agree with Thompson about these kinds of prediction markets, but predicting horrible catastrophes is one of the prosocial early use cases of these things.

  • __MatrixMan__  1 day ago

    Agreed, as long as it's a catastrophe that the bettors can't cause, but for which advance warning can mitigate harms.

    For instance, I'm in favor of bets that a certain astroid will strike the earth at a certain time and place. A signal from the prediction markets might cause somebody to evacuate in a scenario where they'd otherwise cry "fake news."

    Let's not bet on whether the water will remain drinkable, because the last thing we need is for somebody to have an incentive to poison it.

    • jacobgkau  1 day ago

      > For instance, I'm in favor of bets that a certain astroid will strike the earth at a certain time and place. A signal from the prediction markets might cause somebody to evacuate in a scenario where they'd otherwise cry "fake news."

      I understand the point you're making, but in this case, you're still incentivizing someone somewhere to not attempt to the best of their ability to intervene in that astroid. Bets that truly can't cause any change in behavior that might affect the outcome are a mostly theoretical category, in my opinion.

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