Comment by barchar

Polymarket "odds" I think are just the price of the contract * 100 right?

That's not actually the predicted odds by the market because every single bet is also a bet on interest rates.

A contract that literally 100% always would resolve to "true" in 1 year would have a non-zero price for the "false" side because selling that option (and thus taking the "false" side means you get ~$97 today and then pay $100 in a year.

Polymarket's 4% chance of jesus returning by 2026 actually represents a market consensus of basically a 0% chance.

For trump losing office there might be some bets predicated on his losing office being correlated to a higher interest rate outcome, too.