Comment by zovirl
1 day ago
With enough cash on the line, humans are very resourceful at manipulating outcomes.
Humans already control the weather: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822.
I have a hard time believing weather prediction markets will be net beneficial. The incentive for sabotage & manipulation up and down the chain seems likely to lead to worse weather predictions overall.
Funny, downthread there is actually a report of someone experiencing manipulation of weather prediction markets:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47535355
In the same way that crypto has been speed running the history of banking scams, it seems prediction markets are going to speed run the history of gambling and insurance fraud.