Comment by lurkshark

14 hours ago

Part of the argument of prediction markets is that it incentivizes good forecasting. Theoretically if you wanted to concoct a novel political polling technique or rent some compute for a new hyper local weather model, you could recoup your costs via the prediction market.

I think in practice the volume of sharp money in the prediction markets is a small fraction and the majority would be better served with the limits you’re proposing