Comment by camgunz
11 hours ago
I feel like this is just the bubble talking. I'm pretty naive here, but at some point suppliers will adjust so they can take money from data center builders and consumers, just like pre-bubble.
11 hours ago
I feel like this is just the bubble talking. I'm pretty naive here, but at some point suppliers will adjust so they can take money from data center builders and consumers, just like pre-bubble.
Chip manufacturers are used to boom bust cycles and are always hesitant to bring on more capacity, since it costs billions to do so.
They will let the hyperscalers buy their supply at a premium and wait for the bust. Then they will shift back to the consumer space.
Hardware is going to be expensive for awhile but its not as dire as the article makes it out to be.
I recall how in the 2010s RAM manufacturers were in crisis, as their margins were low and competition fierce - it got to a point where they started doing price fixing and got fined for it:
https://web.archive.org/web/20180513133803/https://www.techr...
Prices went down again after that.
To me this is just a temporary swing in the other direction - they're riding the gravy train while they can, because once it ends it's back to low prices.
> Hardware is going to be expensive for awhile but its not as dire as the article makes it out to be.
At the same time, the article’s argument that the value of personal computer ownership is only going to rise, in terms of the value of speech, not strictly in terms of the value of lunch, is important to call out.
I’m glad I held on to my 2009 MacBook, for example, as it still functions today as an active part of my homelab, at an amortized yearly cost of practically the price of taking a nice steak dinner once a year.
It's probably closer to the suppliers don't think this will last and are ramping slowly if at all so they're not left holding the bag.
The US is headed for a cataclysmic crash at this point and it's not clear what will trigger it, but all those companies pushing underpriced tokens and Rust ports of existing tools by agents aren't going to survive it.
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