Comment by jojobas

4 days ago

HLS isn't going anywhere.

> HLS isn't going anywhere

I've been hearing this about every SpaceX project for the last twenty years.

  • Judging by the fact it's 2026 you must be writing this from the Mars base.

    • > Judging by the fact it's 2026 you must be writing this from the Mars base

      SpaceX was started in 2001. It announced Falcon 9 and messaged its reusability ambitions in 2005.

      Falcon 1 wasn’t going anywhere because making rockets is too hard. Falcons 5 and 9 weren’t going anywhere because medium lift is a different ball game. Falcon Heavy wasn’t going anywhere because timing that many engines impossible. Reuse is impossible. (The kerosene will clog everything.) Then, after refly: the total launch market will never be more than $5bn, so reuse is useless.

      More recently stainless steel can’t work. Now it’s shifted to reuse and refurbishment being too difficult, or refueling being impossible because of boil-off. Because keeping shit from boiling, apparently, is just unsolved engineering. ಠ_ಠ

      Not everything SpaceX does is genius the first time. But they’re ridiculously good at not persisting with stupid. The idea that a dozen rapid depot launches is somehow a gating concern, again, as a tech demo, we’re building the depot eventually, is just such a weirdly small and big concern.

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