Comment by jijijijij
2 months ago
How to do you factor in the military demand for Starlink?
If you follow the war in Ukraine, there is absolutely no denying that Starlink is a total gamechanger. Mostly because it's inherently hard to jam, but also got acceptable latency allowing for unrestricted FPV strikes. Because of this, Ukraine seems to have achieved Russian air-defense degradation to the point of limited "free hunting" in the deep.
In that use case, even "AI in space" kinda make sense to me, for future drone developments. One-way drones don't have to waste expensive compute for autonomy, when the compute can be in space above. This would save one RTT for drone control, too. For cheap, jamming resistant swarm (semi-)autonomy, to overwhelm AD, it seems like the perfect solution.
The cat is out of the bag, there is no way the military will ever let go of this capability. Cheap drones are the future, LEO sats provide the comms. There will be long running service contracts.
I see the civilian use rather as a "peace time" subsidiary, now, but the main customer will be the military. And due to SpaceX's launch platform and commercial offering, it's giving the US a hard technological edge in warfare, since it's difficult to afford a LEO sat network without cheap launches and civilian co-pay.
I am too stupid to make a proper economic argument, but it seems like a clever and sustainable business model :D Would love to hear your thoughts!
> there is absolutely no denying that
Famous last words. https://t.me/kcpn2014/3890 The [Russian] Analytical Center of KCPN has conducted a large-scale study of the [Ukrainian] hidden military infrastructure, which provides Ukrainian forces with stable communications along the entire line of contact. The focus is on the “BakhmutTelecom” project — a military mobile network operator (3G and 4G) that was deployed practically under our noses back in 2023. We often attribute many of the enemy’s successes to Starlink, although in reality these are the result of organizational, not technological, advantages.
The civilian cover for “BakhmutTelecom” is J&Y LLC, which in fact serves as infrastructure for purely military tasks. The network comprises around 2,500 towers, 36 or 50 meters tall, arranged in three tiers. They are interconnected via underground fiber-optic cables and microwave relay links.
It's true, it was a bit hyperbole. No civilian really knows what's up. Should have stated it accordingly. It's the apparent observer's consensus.
Yet, the Russian cut-off from Starlink was incredibly notable, organizationally and the recovered FP-1/FP-2 drones featured Starlink terminals, so no use denying that.
Ukraine certainly didn't build 3G/4G in occupied territory. Consider the radio horizon for a 50m tower. In proximity to targets, it absolutely can be jammed, and Russia is very capable of doing so. We see none of that in those deep strikes. Those drones seem to be completely resistant to EW, which implies a connection from above (can only be effectively jammed from above AFAIK). The latency seems notable, but stable.
Now, of course, Starlink alone wouldn't have defeated AD by itself, magically. That's mostly good strategy and intel. However, Starlink made those FP-1/FP-2 deep strikes way more effective and simple (compared to using relays and mesh networking, hoping EW hasn't caught up). Starlink allows to have stable video feeds until impact. No need for autonomy, radio tracking, terrain mapping... just a reusable pilot and a cheap drone. That's huge and a significant tech advantage. If Russia had this (and the intel) for their overwhelming numbers of Geran drones, Ukraine would be in a very bad situation, I think.
Apart from that, Starlink was also instrumental in exfiltrating information about the Iranian protests. It's just a jamming/censorship resistant technology evidently effective against most competent adversaries.
That said, due to the importance of Starlink, I think escalation to/focus on orbit denial attacks seems likely, for any nation which can't afford their own LEO sat network, or existentially utilizes censorship/information control. Especially since (low) LEO debris will deorbit rather timely, it's not exactly a permanent damage to human space flight. Therefore Starlink's military success may be self-limiting and temporal, since the satellites themself are not at all immune to asymmetric attacks.