Trump says 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Iran does not make a deal

9 hours ago (reuters.com)

Kinda reminds me of the story of king Croesus of Lydia, who asked the oracle of Delphi whether he should wage war against Cyrus the Great, the Oracle promptly told him that by doing so he would "destroy a great empire". Croesus then promptly attacked the Persians and lost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croesus#War_against_Persia_and...

  • Hence the term "Delphic", commonly used in English to mean "dangerously ambiguous".

    But in this case, there's not really much ambiguity - Trump is openly threatening genocide and, as a result, is destroying any remaining moral authority that the USA might once have had.

    • Is he? One could also read it as destroying their infrastructure. Which would be devastating to the population, but a far cry from genocide.

      I don’t think making unbased claims adds to the discussion; the facts are already severe enough to warrant their own critique.

      10 replies →

  • After Israel, Iran is home to the second largest Jewish population in the Middle East. Current estimates are that 15,000 to 20,000 Jews live in Iran.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Jews

At this rate, if the official religion of USA was a different one, they would be categorized as a terrorist state

  • It is, just not in the USA. This is the textbook definition of terrorism:

    "The unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims."

    It does not get much clearer than that.

    • That is the near-universal definition, but I don't think it captures the essence of it.

      The difference between terrorism and warfare is the degree of top-down control. Warfare is done in uniform, by people in a hierarchy.

      The reason for the distinction is that there is somebody taking responsibility. You end a war by agreeing to a treaty with the top level. You can hold the top level responsible for violations of the rules of war.

      Terrorism, by contrast, is harder to stop. There is no authority to end it. Even state-sponsored terrorism need not end when the sponsoring state agrees; they can find a different sponsor.

      That doesn't make one morally worse or better than the other. It's just a distinction worth drawing, because it governs how you go about bringing an end to it.

      The US law for terrorism is about attacks against it, and they combat those differently from how they'd go about fighting a war against a conventional enemy.

      What the US is doing to Iran is almost certainly unlawful, but I think that calling it "terrorism" obscures the fact that there is an authority to end it. The attack is legal in its own terms -- it at least has a law, which terrorists do not.

      Again, not better. Arguably, much worse. Which is why I find the definition problematic.

      4 replies →

  • It's called terrorism only when it comes from a certain region. Otherwise it's sparkling military action.

  • It's not about definitions or categorisations. It's about what reprisals there are for labelling them a terrorist state.

Two ways to interpret this:

1) US and Israel will throw everything they have (of conventional weapons) at Iran.

2) US will use (tactical) nuclear weapons on strategic targets.

Of the two evils, I truly hope it will be (1).

  • A previous post was "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day", so I'd guess it's about that. Destroying the entire power infrastructure of a large country like that would have a pretty catastrophic effect on civilians. So that seems worse enough, I seriously hope no nukes will be involved.

    • You remember that video that some Democratic legislators did about refusing to obey illegal orders? This is where that becomes absolutely real.

      (Targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime. Orders to commit war crimes are illegal by definition.)

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    • I saw the observation elsewhere but the medium and long range drones seen in the Russian-Ukraine war at an industrial scale of production would be devastating. Along the lines of "Imagine 1M drones being launched in the opening salvo of a war. Every power substation, cellphone tower, gas station, water tower, oil pipeline etc. in a country could be targeted". It would indeed be civilization ending.

  • Do you mean tactical weapons on strategic targets? Or strategical weapons?

    I honestly don't know what to believe, but I feel the doomsday clock is getting closer to midnight than in a long, long time

    • Either way, we won't be talking about it on HN, this got flagged so hard it is on page 4. We don't do politics. By the way, here is some new nonsense built with an LLM.

      10 replies →

    • Tactical nukes on strategic targets, if nukes will ever be used. While I think in general that the usage of nuclear weapons is "point of no return" action, I do think actual usage would be lower yield tactical nukes on strategic targes - compared to detonating Minutemen over Tehran, and similar high-casualty targets.

      1 reply →

  • Or 3, he's bluffing.

    I'm not sure which of 1 and 2 is least-bad. All depends on downstream consequences, because we're already past the point where everyone's looking at Trump (not just in Iran but also, and we already had this to an extent with Putin attacking Ukraine) and thinking they need a credible deterrent. OTOH, the USA getting suckered into a drawn-out war with Iran in the same way Russia is with Ukraine may be good for almost everyone else, because an exhausted USA is a manageable threat, in a way that the current USA almost certainly isn't.

    • 2 is almost unimaginably worse.

      Nuclear explosives are good. They are very good, as in, "the invention of fire" good. Once the cat is out of the bag on First Use, militaries around the world will put them in operational planning for literally anything that can carry 100kg and needs to strike a hard or spread out target.

      That's assuming this conflict doesn't immediately escalate, which is not a given by any stretch.

      At the start of WW1 everyone thought that Europeans would hold themselves to proper civilized weapons to use against Proper People. Then someone brought in the weapons reserved for colonized peoples - i.e. "half-people" - and found they work real good on Proper People as well. Uncorking nuclear first use will be like the introduction of the machine gun to the world of war, except every bullet is the most powerful device made by Man.

      Breaking the first use taboo - for goddamn Iran of all people - would probably be the worst decision in human history.

    • 1 is least bad. Maybe not for Iran, but for the world. If Trump re-opens Pandora's box, there is much less to hold back other nuclear powers in similar circumstances. The US has lost some dozen troops in this war, Russia has lost hundreds of thousands in its. Why should Russia restrain themselves if the US president goes mental? Our world becomes much, much more dangerous if Trump becomes unable to control himself.

      4 replies →

    • Oh, I'm quite sure. 2 is far worse.

      2 is hundreds of thousands dead at a minimum. 1, even at its worst, would not come close to that. Worse, 2 breaks the "no actual use since Nagasaki" moratorium that has held for 80 years. Once it's broken, how long until the next use? Until Russia decides it can just start nuking cities in Ukraine, say?

  • Option 2 is unthinkable under any circumstances. But in case the biggest mistake in human history, is done by a convicted felon and convicted rapist, that the US elected two times as supreme leader, you should know, that Pakistan stated several times, that will act as nuclear backstop for Iran.

    • > Option 2 is unthinkable under any circumstances.

      Too many unthinkable things have come to pass in the last decade or so for me to find that reassuring.

    • > Pakistan stated several times, that will act as nuclear backstop for Iran.

      Can you clarify what this would even mean? And could you provide a source (because I couldn't)?

  • I mean... the Israelis could use their nuke. I don't know how quickly they could move it from Philadelphia, though.

I don't know how anyone can sleep normally knowing this madman has sole authority over the second largest nuclear weapons stockpile on the planet. It usually takes me until 5am.

I've stocked up on Potassium Iodide tablets for the child to avoid cancer after the nukes fly. I don't think we'll be hit soon in the US, but it's getting a lot more likely.

  • Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens. - Epictetus

    As someone who also thinks about the world a lot, I know it is easier said than done. But it helps to mentally separate the things that you can control and the things you cannot control. Then try to accept the things that you can't control.

    You cannot directly control Trump or the US army. You can protest, go on strike, boycott, call your congressman/senator, love your neighbor, be there for your kids.

  • Likewise. Trump 1 caused my long term sleeping disorder to re-appear and Trump 2 is having me wonder why I thought it was a great idea to have kids. It is complete insanity that someone like this should be holding the Presidency of the USA.

  • Potassium iodide is not going to help you much in the event of a nuclear war.

    It's only really useful for nuclear accidents where the primary radioisotope release is I-131. It's not a magical radiation protection shield (for example against Cs-137 or Sr-90 released as a result of nuclear weapons).

    • Adding to this KI wont keep anything out of the other organs. People not in sealed bunkers will air filtration systems will get acute radiation sickness and eventually cancer either way. Intentionally leaving out the extra morbid details.

  • You can say the same about the putin. Mad man with nukes. No surprise they are friends with Trump.

    But somehow you were sleeping well before trump returned to the office while putin was threatening to use nukes.

  • There’s an urge down there in the modern people secretly hoping for the destruction the civilization. Get out of the current systems that dictate a life for you. I suspect that’s why very few people are panicking, a lot of people are rooting for it to happen.

So... if I were China... this would be a decent week to invade Taiwan. Everyone seems to be a bit distracted.

  • China won't need to invade anyone. In a few more years of this the leaders of the world will be re-writing their national anthems in Mandarin to get a whiff of stability.

    Why invade when they come to you?

Curious to know how many HNers still support Trump. They’ll probably say they never supported him, but they were pretty numerous (or at least more than you would expect on HN) saying he wasn’t all that bad (who cares about human rights when money is flowing) at the beginning of his term.

Blah blah blah. Trump is trying his stupid, tough businessman TV persona in world politics.

Everyone in the admin is a deeply unserious person being propped up by the paranoia and dumb “patriotism” created by 9/11. You could make an argument that Osama bin Laden was ultimately successful in destroying the US.

Just saw a comment where someone wondered if Trump explicitly said he would bomb Iran or if he left a little linguistic wiggle room so he could nuke San Francisco if Iran doesn't do what he wants. Modernity is so weird recently, it honestly wouldn't surprise me.

So he's graduated from simply threatening war crimes to threatening genocide. We are the baddies.

The worst part of this is that he's not threatening to kill Iranian civilians because of some human atrocities that the Iran gov is committing, that they must stop or else.

No, he's threatening to kill civilians because of the _price of gas_.

At what point is Congress going to realize that the commander in chief of the most powerful military in the world, with sole authority over _nuclear launch codes_, is mentally unstable and a threat to not only the rest of the world, but consequently, to the US as well.

Hey Americans this might be a good time to do something about that lunatic you put into office. You're the ones constantly bleating on about keeping government power in check, don't you think this is an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is? The world is watching, and judging.

He is winning so much he is openly talking about commiting new war crimes.

Anyway, there is no sense to listen to Trump. TACO is a thing.

  • > Anyway, there is no sense to listen to Trump. TACO is a thing.

    It's never a good idea to disregard something just because you want it to be true.

    Trump's done a lot of shit that he said he'd do (tariffs, capturing foreign leaders, wars of choice). He's incredibly stupid. You can't predict stupid people.

    • I cannot predict his moves, I can not do anything to affect him. There is no point to listen him.

      The only thing I can do is to donate money to buy kamikaze drones for Ukraine to help defeat his dear friend vladimir.

      1 reply →

One of the things that has been shocking to me but has received little attention, has been the assassination of prominent former Iranian officials. Is this not a war crime? They were serving in no military capacity before they and their families were killed in their homes.

If a foreign adversary killed John Bolton or Anthony Blinken by bombing their homes I'm sure it would be called terrorism.

  • It's only terrorism if it originates from the middle east, otherwise it's just a sparkling extrajudicial special military operation and "police action"

Remember Trump's tweet from 2019[0]. I wonder which other country benefits the most from dragging the US into this war? Oh, right.

    The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....

[0] https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181905659568283648

  • US presidents have a history of saying one thing on the campaign trail and doing another once they're in office. Clinton said he was going to do health care reform during the campaign, but signed the welfare to work, mandatory sentencing and glass-steagall repeal when he was in office.

    Although... just looked at the date on that tweet. He was still in office for his first term at the time. So... yeah... modernity is not a place to look for consistent statements from political figures.

Excuse me guys and gals, on what page of The Art of the Deal are we right now?

I can’t find the chapter about threatening the other party with genocide and how to follow up negotiations from that point.

Any person that supports Trump's message is insane. There are no ifs or buts.

  • There is a massive disconnect between what Americans experience in their day to day vs what they will support happening abroad. We are so completely insulated that we can have something like this happening and still not be shocked by the implications because the likely near-term consequence is just "shucks $5 a gallon".

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  • You got here because you elected Donald J Trump, twice.

    • You don’t believe millions of dollars in bribes(“lobbying”) has influence, when sprinkled on the right people?

      Israel and Jewish interests spend a lot of money on USA politicians.

    • As someone who voted for Dean Phillips in the primary because I knew we were heading down a road where we would lose, I don't know what we're supposed to do here.

      I would obviously leave if it were feasible at this point, but getting a visa not at all trivial. I just don't know how to deal with the fact that this country is in the toilet... like not "governed by a party I don't like" but "governed by genuine nutjobs that have no concern for the future of the country." I protested. I volunteered. I donated money. I phone banked, yet here we are. It's a waking nightmare at this point.

      I imagine this is what it feels like to have been a liberal in St Petersburg watching Putin or in Milan watching Berlusconi slowly consolidate power. It's just a slow motion car crash and you can see it's only going to get worse, but there's nowhere to go because the English-speaking world isn't exactly trying to help Americans who might want to leave. The best visa there is is with the Netherlands, and I've considered it, but the window on that is closing rapidly.

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  • Exactly. Remember Trump's tweet from 2019[0]. But the zionist lobby is holding the US hostage.

        The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....
    

    [0] https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1181905659568283648

    •    > The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....
      

      Could you imagine 8 trillion dollars reverted to the welfare of american citizens?

      How much affordable housing, higher education and healthcare 8 trillion dollars could have bought for american citizens?

      1 reply →

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  • you could have stopped at "Persian people shouldn't have to die for this."

    The rest is irrelevant to what has been threatened.

    edit. to be clear, the rest of your post is offensive in that it implies that under a different genetic lineage, the threats would be justified. I can't believe I have to even write this.