Comment by megamike
19 hours ago
Iran's 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency (via China's state news agency Xinhua[0]) claims the 10 points are:
1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression
2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran
7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran
8. Payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon
Which is much different.
[0] https://english.news.cn/20260408/dd8df6148df94252aaa1d3fbb59...
The Ayatollah Booth is egg on the US's face regardless, but $2M/ship is about $1/barrel for perspective. Spot price is $95/barrel right now.
$2M/ship is $1/barrel for VLCCs, but it's a lot more for smaller ships. Practically, nobody will use a ship smaller than a VLCC with the toolbooth.
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$2M/ship is $100B/year at pre-war crossing rates.
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Not convinced it will happen. What would prevent Saudi Arabia from retaliating and introducing a special fee on all ships coming from Iran. It's not like intercepting those massive cargo ships in a small sea is of any difficulty for a well funded military.
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Rather than $2M per ship, it's €1.7M or 13.7M CNY per ship.
1$/barrel - of barrels they are not producing surely ? That would make them able to levy Saudi Arabian and UAE oil and gas.
If Iran's 10 points become the basis of the peace, it ratifies Iran's sovereignty over the strait, at which point they can raise the price. It will be years before alternative routes devalue control of the strait, during which time Iran can siphon a lot of money out of passages taxes.
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> 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz
> 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran
> 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran
These seem remarkably outside the USes power to unilaterally agree to.
The first violates international treaties and while I'd be thrilled with the precedent as a Canadian eyeing my countries future revenue streams I doubt the rest of the world's countries are going to be happy to give up freedom of navigation through international waterways.
The second is something that can only be done by the UN security council with a majority vote and none of the permanent members vetoing the termination.
I don't actually know how the IAEA works, but it seems all but certain that that's up to their board of governors not the US.
It’s unlikely that Iran will get it’s demands at least all of them, and further it’s likely that this ceasefire will break no matter what.
The strait is actually not international waters. It’s shared between Oman and Iran remember (deep water shipping lanes does not exists everywhere in it as well). There was reporting of an agreement on both sides to some sort of shared booth.
Only the US would be the permanent party to vote against it which would be against which would be weird if the agree to the conditions in the first place.
IAEA are stooges, they will do what the US tells them and they’ll come up with some legitimate way of doing it.
If the US wants the IAEA to agree to something like this, especially considering the global economic impact of refusing, I imagine the IAEA could be convinced.
The JCPOA came about when the US pushed for it in 2013.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal
> The first violates international treaties
Yeah, but USrAel never ratified UNCLOS. Iran is in the same boat.
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3. Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights
Among many other items this would never be accepted. This momentary cease fire is just regrouping time for everyone involved and that has always been the case for Iran.
It is acceptable, if only enriched for civilian reactors, not weapon grade what they did - and Iran was about to agree to that condition before their leadership was wiped out. If the new leadership will agree, remains to be seen. But I believe china or russia are also not strongly interested in a nuclear armed Iran.
There no feasible escalation path for the US. Trump has alienated allies and much of his anti war supporters. A forever war quagmire in a country 3x larger than Iraq is unlikely, as is carpet bombing. So what's left? A JCPOA style agreement with a Maga bumper sticker on it, with heavy concessions to Iran to prevent them from racing to a bomb, which is the best option from their pov at this point.
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The whole concept of the ceasefire is absurd - it's like the joke that to combat the rise of suicides, the government made them punishable by death.
There's no enforcement mechanism, only big dog, small dog logic. What happens if one party breaks the ceasefire? The other starts shooting?
Um, yes?
Interesting. I have noticed that news about events in Iran has been markedly different within the US and outside the US for years.
The differences in the various 10 point lists have been noticed. I wonder if different lists are being produced to make each side look better to their respective populace?
Still, either way lifting sanctions seems like a win for Iran. Also seems like Iran is going to be allowed to charge a transit fee through the SoH. Trump's going to spin this as a win, but it seems like a big loss. Maybe he's just desperate enough to get out of this that he's going to let it slide?
Hmm.
"Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights" (enrichment to what degree?)
"Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran" (what does this actually mean, that they tear up previous reports and findings? Ignore undeclared nuclear facilities and unaccounted for uranium?)
I mean, are Iran basically asking that they be allowed build nuclear weapons unchecked? Or is there another way to read this?
Aljazeera is sharing roughly the same list
Yeah 0% chance the US agrees to this.
The US doesn't have the cards
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It doesn't seem much different. Both involve guaranteed stop of all hostilities plus payment for what you did plus keep we Strait Of Hormuz. The only difference is how the payment for the attack goes.
Withdrawal of US troops from the region and acceptance of uranium enrichment appears nowhere in the other 10 points.
There are permanent US bases in the region.
Seriously? Those are major differences.
Even that is wildly worse than when we started the war. This is a unmitigated loss.
Have the U.S. and Iran agreed the points? Or is this two weeks to hammer them down?
Of course not. It's a framework of a framework of a framework, unilaterally suggested by Iran.
Two weeks of open Strait to nail the final version, yes.
I guess gas prices in US will cool down to pre-war price averages and the pressure not to resume aggression will be huge.
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Either way, it's maximalist aims, not realistic aims. Negotiations will obviously converge closer to US aims since Iran has no leverage.
> Iran has no leverage.
Patently false. Else there'd be no ceasefire.
The president just went from threatening genocide to begging Pakistan to set up a deal that doesn't even have agreed-upon terms. Seems like they have quite a lot of leverage.
I’m not sure the terms of negotiation are even worth discussion. Every time this administration has negotiated with anyone on matters pertaining to Israeli interests, it’s only been a ruse to position for another attack.
My guess is that they know good and well all the marine landing craft are going to get smoked and are using a false peace to preposition the ground invasion. The ridiculous James Bond scheme they tried to pull off which resulted in us destroying a dozen of our own aircraft and, quite probably a few of our own operators was a Hail Mary inspired by too much television. That failure leaves the administration with quite the dilemma. Surrender and call it a victory, which Israel will not allow. Or repeat the Syracuse Expedition as farse.
It’s a bit depressing to think about, but my hope is that these catastrophic failures will get false allies out of the decision loop and we proceed as a more peaceful and wiser country.
> false allies
You can just say Israel. I wonder how long it will still take that Netanyahu has not US (or anyone’s at this point, except himself) interest in mind. Even Trump must be able to put two and two together at this point, no?
> Even Trump must be able to put two and two together at this point, no?
How have you looked at the the last couple of decades of Trump and come to that conclusion? The man's a total idiot and that was even before his mental decline
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Oh at this point you should probably wonder not whether he gets it, but what leverage does Israel he have over him, and if it's directly from Epstein files.
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Trump is probably being black mailed. Epstein must have given them some really heinous footage of Trump on camera.
Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.
Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?
Who knew tech employees weren't exactly across international politics.
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Change this line from : "so basically Iran gets everything it wants"
to "so basically Iran would get everything it wants under this plan".
I'm not so dumb to understand that this will be the final plan, just commenting that this is incredibly bad for the US as is laid out.
> Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue.
Speaking of this community being kinda dumb - do you really think this ceasefire is enough for all ships to go on their merry way? Deals mentioned over social media are not enough to convince insurance companies that all is safe. And 12 hours later we now have evidence of this - https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/strait-hormuz-sh...
Also, my original point is that there is nothing in that deal that is a better long-term outcome than what we had before the war. Maybe that will change in the final deal, but the fact that the starting point of the negotiation is 100% on Iran's side is not where you want to be.
> This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking
Its probably not even that. PR statements for public consumption rarely reflect bargaining positions behind closed doors.
I understand this perspective a lot more. I assume they're going to haggle and work on a few items, and adjust pieces here and there. What if they at least get sanctions lifted, that would be huge, no? Going to be an interesting couple of weeks.
Safe but not open. The agreement Trump tweeted says ships must "coordinate" with IRGC.
The community is not as sophisticated as you may perceive it to be.
Nobody knows what "the actual deal" is because we have pathological liars on both sides (well, especially pathological on one side, most just utilitarian on the other)
Iran's version of events includes the Iranian military controlling the Strait and incurring fees.
AP is reporting Iran's version as the true one.
Welcome to HN where users with little domain knowledge make comments of utter certainty about any topic under the sun.
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No one has agreed to the Iran's 10 point plan, and they're not going to get all of it.
The provisional ceasefire actually goes against the Iranian proposition. Point 2 explicitly is "permanent end to the war, not a ceasefire".
Iran backed down a bit here from their maximalist aims (which is what the 10 point is).
Trump literally said he would bomb them to the stone age. It doesn’t get more maximalist than that and it was the US that backed down.
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They also got to keep their new Ayatollah and continue with their religious government. An escalation of the war would have certainly ended with a complete regime change. Which would have been very expensive in life (Iranians) and money (Americans).
A complete regime change would probably only come with a large scale invasion, bigger than Iraq's. A huge majority of Americans don't want that.
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There was never going to be a regime change. Continuing the war meant many Americans were going to die (in addition to bankrupting the US). I'm a US citizen and very glad Iran came out on top here.
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Their new Ayatollah is braindead. It's not over yet.
Nothing has been agreed yet except a 2 week ceasefire.
It depends. If it later comes out that their nuclear material was secured by the US, this is much more acceptable - it would seriously incentivize pipeline construction by making passage through the Strait more expensive. Given that closing it is really the only lever Iran has that can put pressure on the US at all, this attenuates that a great deal.
It’s not acceptable on its face, but there’s a lot going on in this conflict that isn’t making the news.
Iran has also been freely bombing Israel and US assets around the Middle East. The Zionists bit off more than they could chew and now Iran is better positioned than ever before. Not only that Iran has earned a lot of respect globally and Israel/the US has lost what little they had left.
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A pipeline will circumvent Iranian tolls, but would be vulnerable to Iranian strikes in a war.
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The US did not secure nuclear material. No one has even made that claim and it was logistically impossible.
It all sounds great. Which government? Is it a different regime? If not, why would the US concede?
> why would the US concede?
Because it has no way of achieving its objectives.
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Because it doesn’t have a choice. There is no path to winning this war, just ways of making larger and more complex versions of the Iraq occupation.
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Why would the US start this in the first place? Be assured that however this comes out, a “Truth” will be posted assessing it as the Greatest Deal Ever and a Total Win, end of story.
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> If not, why would the US concede?
Because Trump is already facing a bloodbath in the midterms and his next step is either a ground war or dropping a nuke, and both of those will ensure he not only loses the midterms but has a legitimate shot at seeing the inside of a prison cell.
Because the escalation Trump was talking about would have wrecked the ME with Iran's retaliation on desalination plants, oil infrastructure, power plants, etc. Which would have been a massive shock to the global economy, along with a large humanitarian crisis inside of Iran and it's neighbors.
The old government is largely dead. The new one has a carrot and a stick in front of them.
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How much do you think is fair for being attacked by a superpower for no reason in illegal military action with war crimes sprinkled throughout.
Imagine it happened to you.
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The US attack on Iran was wrong but don't forget that Iran loves to lob ballistic missiles at Israel civilians.
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Sadly they have dropped requirements that Netanyahu be turned over to the ICC, but it's important to recognize that this ceasefire is between Iran and the US only and not necessarily a deal between Iran and Israel.
>> 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
Hard for the Iranians to take anything the US says seriously. US launched attacks in the middle of the last two negotiations.
Do you have a source for this being the 10 points which form the basis of negotiations, rather than something released to the media to shape those negotiations?
This is not the deal. Iran had published this earlier as their list of demands, just like the US did. The reality is something in the middle of that.
Iran's 10-point plan (that no one else has agreed to)
Exactly, but Hacker News is upvoting this because it wants the US to be seen as the loser of this conflict.
Both sides in a conflict (or any negotiation) make demands that they know the other will not accept. You can't just take someone's list like that and assume that'll be the exact outcome.
Oftentimes ceasefires have agreed-upon terms.
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Contrast it with the JCPOA by Obama
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/joint-comprehensive-p...
Key Aspects of the JCPOA: Enrichment Limits: Iran capped uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years.
Centrifuge Restrictions: Reduced operating centrifuges to 5,060 IR-1 machines for 10 years.
Stockpile Restrictions: Limited enriched uranium stockpile to 300 kg for 15 years.
Facility Redesign: Redesigned the Arak heavy water reactor to prevent plutonium production and converted Fordow into a research center.
Monitoring: The IAEA receives enhanced access and monitoring capabilities.
Sanctions Relief: UN, EU, and US nuclear-related sanctions were lifted, restoring Iranian oil sales and banking access.
What an awful failure that agreement was. Iran accepted the sanctions relief and ignored the terms of the agreement.
While since Trump dropped that deal, Iran had enriched around 440kg to 60%. Nobody knows for sure where any of that is.
So much winning.
yep, the US fucked up by not properly ratifying the JCPOA
tearing it up and pissing all over it led directly to this quagmire
Trump ensured that there is absolutely no reason for any nation, not just Iran, to believe what USA says in the future. No agreements/treaties with the USA can be trusted. And not just with Trump administration, since he demonstrated clearly that he can tear any treaty/agreement that was made under different administrations as well. The United States demonstrated that it has very, very limited control over the actions of an elected president.
I can’t accept the theocratic tyrants who implement terrorism, execute their own people and slaughter them as they protest remain in charge. They should be forced out of power.
I wonder if the US had struck when momentum was high during the popular uprising, it could have being self sustaining, with arms and logistics setup to feed the resistance advance.
The delusional idea that one can affect regime change through bombing is the cause of quite a bit death and destruction throughout the world.
Maybe the problem wasn't the timing, but the fact that thousands of people were killed and millions lived in fear for the future for the past month? That's enough to cause most people to stand behind their government, no matter how reviled they might be.
The second day of the war Israel gave everyone in Tehran a day-long oil shower. Imagine cleaning that out of your kid's hair, you're not going to overthrow the government that's shooting back.
Regime change with air invasion is unlikely.
The civilian casualties of the war is still significantly lower than the number killed by the regime (according to Amnesty International with conservative number). So while I agree that people don’t want bombing, I highly doubt that the war makes them like their oppressors. They love their country and Iran and islamic regime are not the same exactly.
The idea there was bombing to support the popular uprising that does the actual work. I think that might have been the fantasy here, too, but it seems like the window closed.
I'm not arguing that Iran has been executed well, but military force has topled MANY regimes. If you're arguing "bombs" specifically and only, the U.S. won the war with Japan by dropping just two big ones. If you'd like a more contemporary example: Libya, 2011. NATO’s campaign relied overwhelmingly on air and missile strikes, and NATO officially did not deploy a conventional foreign ground force. The regime was finished by Libyan rebel forces on the ground. This is likely the scenario Trump was hoping for.
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I guess you’re right. I was thinking a peoples army, armed by US logistics and calling in US air support.
But i guess you know more than i do
There was, and still is, no scenario in which US and/or Israel attacks Iran and effects regime change. Come on, we've been over this multiple times over the past few decades.
Any direct military action will galvanize population against the existential threat, not against the tyrant who's still your countryman, no matter how rotten.
If they wanted true change, grassroots support was the only way. Was, because at this point more than likely any revolution has been pushed back by a few years at least, probably decades.
I see your point. You don’t think most Iranians want freedom from tyrants? I see 90% dislike the tyrants, and 80% want Trump to eradicate them. Leveling the field for the popular revolution I hope takes over.
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What about the other Middle East countries involved such as the UAE and what about Europe?
Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess. Some countries even rejected to even give logistical support to the US.
and some (most?) countries offered support...?
Spain has held a firm line, but even others such as UK/FR have allowed use of facilities or engaged their air craft carriers or facilitated US movements.
I wonder if uninvolved nations will also be required to pay the safe passage fees.
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> Europe, thankfully, stayed out of this mess
Cyprus/UK [0] faced attempted strikes; the UK is running defensive sorties for the UAE [1], Qatar [2], and Iraq [3]; and British bases in Oman and the UAE were struck [4]. France has done similar actions as well [5]. The UK and France have mutual defense pacts across the Gulf as well which they need to maintain.
Additionally, Ukraine has now begun providing defensive capabilities to the Gulf States, which Iran argues makes it an active combatant [6]. By this precedent the UK and France are also active combatants against Iran.
The reality is, the Iran War and the Ukraine War are tied to the hip. If defending Ukraine against Russian drone strikes conducted by Iranian ground troops [7] and using Iranian technology [8] is critical to European security, then ending Iran's tactical support is critical as well.
Ironically, this is probably great news for Ukraine. Russia's geoint support for Iran [9] has made it easier for my peers still on the Hill to make a case to double down and enhance American support for Ukraine, as well as pulling Gulf States who were previously neutral to supporting Ukraine as well [10].
This is also why Ukraine is calling out Russian disinfo ops about the war [11]. Iran has doubled down on similar information warfare [12] and hybrid [13] operations in the UK and Mainland Europe
Frankly, we need to call a spade a spade - the Ukraine War and Iran War have merged into a single transnational war.
If you support Ukraine you cannot support Iran, and this is Ukraine's stance as well [14][15][16][17][18].
[0] - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/05/7405318/
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Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
I do not see that happening.
Did we get "The Art of the Deal"'ed?
I don't think he read that book. He certainly didn't write it.
Someone is experiencing materiel gain, that's for sure.
Where did you get those points from? Do you have a source? The 10 points I've read in the media are different, e.g. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/04/08/what-is-i...
Does it include a end to Hezbollah strikes on Israel from Lebannon, Hoothi strikes on Israel? Sounds like the us just surrendered?
Congratulations, Iran has won the ability to fund its politics many times over in this way and they've lost little else.
Their entire leadership, navy, airforce, petrochemical and steel industries as well as the entire supply chain for the ballistic and drones industries which is also a lucrative export to Russia.
I am not sure they "lost a little else". When looking at what the US lost, it's pretty small in comparison
Can you please cite the source of these ten points?
Iran if they have any sense should be prepared for a massive self defense and counter attack. "Talks" from the USA and Israel have a precedent of being attacks and invasions.
If there's one thing that's pretty clear, it's that the Iranian government is quite aware of this and of how the US acts. The US government, on the other hand, seems oblivious to anything about how the Iranian government acts.
I am honestly surprised and shocked to admit but Iran is the sanest and least immoral side in this conflict and it's not because my views of Iran improved or changed much. I couldn't imagine I'd be saying such a thing a few years ago.
The US government seems to be pretty oblivious to how it itself acts, expecting them to understand another country's motivations is so many steps beyond that.
To summarize: a far worse deal than what Obama had and Trump ripped up, and worse than the status quo that existed before Trump started illegally bombing Iran.
There is a reason Trump had to be saved over and over during his 'career'. Extreme incompetence + clinical narcissism = "I am a winner". This conman and more importantly the powers that prop him up have been very costly for the world, including the USA, and it is about time to hand the bill to MAGA.
Rednecks gonna redneck, the USA clown show has some very determined sponsors, so I don't count on any improvement, but I prefer they at least enjoy their party indoors.
Ok, so that won’t happen right? Israel won’t agree to #3
That's just anchoring.
Are this points for discussion or demands by Iran?
So this 10 point plan that was “not good enough” according to Trump on Monday 6th April, now as the deadline looms, it’s suddenly “a workable basis” for negotiations?
Frankly if Iran get nothing more than a complete lifting of sanctions this would be a massive climb down for the US.
Trump's rhetoric was all bluster, he actually had no leverage and was unwilling to pay the cost to continue the war (mostly in terms of cost to himself). He needed an offramp and this was it.
Right.
So basically complete American surrender. And America accepted this deal.
Seems reasonable given their advantageous position.
> Iran would split these fees with Oman
Hard to imagine Trump splitting any fees if he was the leader of Iran.
Source please. I think we should all get the source of these 10 points from somewhere.
Why would the US accept these terms? They could just keep crippling Iran’s infrastructure and fuel supply and more until their new leadership fractures. Is this entirely about midterm elections?
We could have done that, but Donny Two-Scoops had to go and threaten them with total destruction. That limited his options greatly.
Source please. Please provide the source for that plan.
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Are Israeli concerns the axis around which the world must revolve? In any case they can keep busy ethnically cleansing south Lebanon and murdering Palestinian children.
Do you think only the Israelis are pissed about the Iranians funding the Houthis and Hezbollah?
The Saudis were at war with the Houthis for several years, Hezbollah assassinate Lebanese politicians and repeatedly starts wars that nobody else in Lebanon wants, which also includes intervening in the Syrian civil war on behalf of Assad and starving out Syrian villages. Ask the Syrians how they feel about Hezbollah.
The fact that none of these were considered critical discussion points tells you just how desperate the US/Israel coalition is for a ceasefire.
It really does feel like the rescue op was a failed raid on Isfahan, and this is the Plan B.
Why would the US be desperate for a ceasefire?
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No, what I think it really tells you is that these just Iran's proposal. So far as I know, the US (and Israel) have not actually agreed to these.
I've seen several posts here saying that they have, but what I haven't seen is any evidence or links. Until I do, I reserve the right to believe that the US has not actually agreed to Iran's plan.
But my (grandparent) post was off. If these are Iran's proposed points, of course they're going to say that Israel stops attacking Hezbullah but that Iran is free to keep arming them.
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So resistance against genocide is bad but the genocide is fine? There are clear good and bad guys here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Burgas_bus_bombing
Good ol genocidal Bulgaria I guess huh?
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Why would Iran agree to any of this?
So they don't get destroyed
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