Comment by bigyabai
18 hours ago
The fact that none of these were considered critical discussion points tells you just how desperate the US/Israel coalition is for a ceasefire.
It really does feel like the rescue op was a failed raid on Isfahan, and this is the Plan B.
Why would the US be desperate for a ceasefire?
Upcoming midterm elections and lack of public support for the war.
Lack of domestic support, lack of international support
the requirement for congressional approval if the conflict persists longer than 90 days from the first “military operation”
potential for escalation by various allies into a much more involved conflict
downstream impacts of Hormuz being impassable
among I’m sure several other reasons I’m not informed enough to point out.
One preference the US public seems to reliably deliver via elections is the desire for lower prices.
All those ships are needed for an easy win in Cuba.
Because it's becoming another Middle East quagmire which the American public has very little patience for, and it's bad for Wall Street, bad for prices at the pump, and bad for the global economy.
No, what I think it really tells you is that these just Iran's proposal. So far as I know, the US (and Israel) have not actually agreed to these.
I've seen several posts here saying that they have, but what I haven't seen is any evidence or links. Until I do, I reserve the right to believe that the US has not actually agreed to Iran's plan.
But my (grandparent) post was off. If these are Iran's proposed points, of course they're going to say that Israel stops attacking Hezbullah but that Iran is free to keep arming them.
It’s amazing to me to see the amount of people willfully ignorant in this war, and having extremely short memory.
In June we had the 12th day war with Iran, it also ended with a ceasefire which continued to negotiations which collapsed and here we are.
Now, a ceasefire again, and people already claiming that Iran has won and trump accepted their demands.
I’ve seen people saying at first that Iran didnt agree to the ceasefire and then saying that they won’t open the strait. Completely oblivious people.
It's not oblivious. It's more willfully ignorant. Even that is not right. Most people are just so anti-America and anti-West that they side with actual despots and choose to believe strange things. If we send 10,000 bombs to Iran and lose an F-16E and have to search for a pilot for a few days, these people believe this means Iran has won the war. If China puts a balloon on our coast, these people believe China has defeated us militarily. I responded to a post the other day where someone was claiming Cuba could "easily" neutralize the entire U.S. Navy with a handful of drones or something.
1 reply →
If they would read the actual news the ceasefire is contingent on immediate opening of the strait. That’s the deal, open the strait and the bombing stops while we negotiate over the next two weeks.
I don't think this ceasefire is going to last as long as people think. It just gives a chance for everyone to bury the dead, resupply, rearm and continue the war.
By that logic, the US and Israel should have never offered a ceasefire and stuck to the regime change narrative. Accepting a ceasefire shows that America was never serious about controlling the Strait, and passes the initiative back to the Iran/China axis instead of straining it through a joint blockade. The tactics make zero sense, considering the objectives laid out at the start.
It's been weeks of war, America should have something to show for it. Right now, Iran has successfully used America's offer as a way to muzzle Israel in Lebanon and muster their own strength with Russia and China. Even from a Zionist perspective, this is a terrible result.
How does Iran's proposal, which neither the US nor Israel have accepted, muzzle Israel in Lebanon?
But I will agree that the tactics make zero sense.
1 reply →