Comment by hdivider
13 hours ago
Let me articulate the thing which I believe is on many people's minds:
What is the chance the president will order a nuclear strike on Iran as this war proceeds?
We would hope the odds are vanishingly small, because doing so would be profoundly disadvantageous. But the same was true for initiating this war in the first place. The logic -- such as it is -- of some people in power may lead them to conclude once more that shock and awe can succeed. We've already struck the country with powerful conventional weapons at scale and it has not led to a weakening of Iranian resolve.
All the above said, my personal hope of course is this will never happen. I'm curious what other folks think however.
No chance. A nuclear strike on Iran won't achieve anything that a large number of conventional strikes would.
My real question is not whether it would achieve anything meaningful, but what would be the side effects of such a strike on allies in the region.
I don't have a remotely decent mental model of fallout etc from modern nuclear weapons - my assumptions are they're still toxic enough to be a bloody terrible idea anywhere near someone you like.
You're assuming the current president operates on rationale. He simply would love to be the guy who uses a tactical nuke.
How much would you wager? It's easy to to say what you're saying because it's popular.
If you watch action and not social media bs, the probability is close to 0%.
The shock and awe from a nuclear strike is unmatched
Wouldn't*