Comment by blitzar

2 days ago

Just a decade away now.

That's progress, if fusion is always only 10 years away now! The running joke used to be that it was always 30 years away.

Fusion is a number of dollars away, not years. It gets almost no funding because it’sa science and engineering experiment that most likely will not lead to economically viable power plants in a market dominated by renewables.

… and like fusion it will be a decade away, a decade away, a decade away, six months away, then we have it.

The “decade away” phenomenon comes from the fact that it’s basically impossible to time estimate innovation.

  • I went to school in Oxfordshire in the '80s. Some visiting profs from JET joked that fusion was 25 years away then.

    • Back then things were centered around "can we even do this?" and now it's more of "how do we keep this running more than 5 minutes?".

      2 replies →

  • ... and room temperature superconductors! If only we could sort out the feasibility, interdependencies, and priorities, but we just don't know, or well, I just don't know haha.