Comment by alecco
10 hours ago
> I'm afraid the music may be slowly fading at this party, and the lights will soon be turned on. We may very well look back on the last couple years as the golden era of subsidized GenAI compute.
Indeed. Anthropic is just leading the pack switching to juicy corporate users who are happy to pay thousands per month per dev and leave the fans behind. And now OpenAI is following suit. They lowered significantly the limits for the Plus $20 plan and answered concerns with vague confusing tweets about promotions.
All this is pushed by the fastest rising demand (Codex growing +50% monthly) while having a serious bottleneck building data centers and getting parts (permits, energy, memory, flash, etc).
Users on reddit and Discord are trying to switch to open models or Chinese alternatives. But there's no real replacement.
I don't know about users on reddit and discord, but the open models are essentially at SotA with a 3-4 months delay. That puts a hard backstop at what OpenAI and Anthropic can do before I personally can cut them off entirely without losing too much.
Granted the experience can be worse, esp. if you're using it very hands-off and not like a junior assistant who's extremely fast but doesn't know what he's doing at the architecture and strategy level. But even for that I'm relatively confident the Chinese will be competitive pretty soon, and they won't be too expensive. And we know this because we can see their current models and we know what it takes to run them.
Currently my Strix Halo computer that costed me under £3k can do a lot of LLM stuff that is perfectly useful. In some ways, it's better than "cloud" models, I have models that essentially don't say "no" and I have relatively predictable setups. If you want to get fancy, you can right now rent compute to run models that are extremely capable like the latest ones from Kimi, GLM, Qwen, Minimax at full size from providers that are not operating at a loss and it won't be too expensive. You can pool resources to do the same locally. You can do stuff that cloud providers are unlikely to market, like distillation and abliteration to serve your specific needs.
I'm very optimistic about open weights models just the way they are right now.
But I agree with you that OpenAI will likely play similar games to Anthropic and it could be soon.