Comment by tekno45
16 hours ago
https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254
They admit no returns.
But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
Yes exactly.
The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme.
73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science
https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data
It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.
If they're appropriately priced, you can't win money at all, unless you have insider knowledge.
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That's a massive "if".
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> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
A persistent bias in prediction markets is pricing very non likely events as slightly more likely than they are. ie; a 1% event priced at 4%, etc, because people like to bet long shots.
Whether there is enough of a predictable bias there to snag enough low return high probability bets to beat the vig and not shift the markets I have not looked into in any way,but it is a known bias with them.
The real money to be made in prediction markets is being the ones with the actual knowledge which is arguably why they are useful and why for some topics, people find them abhorrent.
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71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.
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It's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.
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> I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not.
To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.
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I’ll take the “no” side of that bet ;)
Why would outcomes match perceptions?
The whole premise of gambling is that they don't
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reminds me of that one story when someone won a poker bot competition by always going all in
For the uninitiated, I believe the meme comes from Reddit, where there is one criticism subreddit, r/ThatHappened where people accuse other Redditors of making up stories of events that never actually happened, and then a meta-criticism subreddit, r/Nothingeverhapens, where people make fun of r/ThatHappened as conspiracy theorists who think everything posted online is fake. Hard to tell how much of each subreddit is trolling and how much are people earnestly criticizing each other.
It comes from 4chan, like all decent memes
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/nothing-ever-happens
its funny, tells you it barely works, and its a good meme.
Successful project imo.
In addition, it serves as a good template for writing your own polymarket bot with whatever logic you want.
Does the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
No, I think the bias is really just a reflection of how propositions are phrased. We could imagine a mirror-world prediction market that offers all the same propositions, but phrased oppositely: e.g. a market in "person X will die by Y date" becomes a market in "person X will survive until Y date". And in that market, we would see a bias towards propositions resolving as Yes.
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.
I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this:
X happens before May. [Yes][No]
X happens before June. [Yes][No]
X happens before July. [Yes][No]
...
So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?
That's one event containing three markets, each yes/no. And in a way each market is two separate markets, buy/sell yes and buy/sell no, but they mirror each other.
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And how do you report it in May?
> They admit no returns.
So it's not a useful trading strategy. Good to know.
It might have worked out that the human tendency towards optimism biased the Yes side, but Polymarket is watched closely enough by traders that the pricing is apparently realistic.
Now if you could bet against minor crypto coins, which almost always go down... But if you could, there would be traders pricing them realistically. Everybody has analytics now, and mispriced markets are detected and exploited quickly.
I'm not sure the Yes side is usually the optimistic side?
When people do find an edge they tend not to share it ;)
"just funny meme backed code"
I laughed. That's inspired. Quite the nerd-snipe as well, based on the rapidly accumulating threads on effectiveness, probabilities and markets.
It must be true that more markets resolve to no than yes because many markets are linked and only have one winner. (ie. if there are 10 people in the race for who will be the next president, 9 will resolve to no)
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