Comment by fooker
12 hours ago
Leverage is not the steamroller here.
It’s the 90% chance of making 1$ vs 10% chance of losing 100$.
The exact numbers vary, the expectations even out with high volume stocks but prediction markets do not because of rounding that favors the house.
That's just the binary nature of the bet. You address that in a real trading strategy with (fractional) Kelly position sizes. Anyone doing this for actual money would also be well served by implementing continuous monitoring and active risk management over top, in order to limit maximum drawdowns if the trend evaporates.