Comment by NickNaraghi
16 hours ago
It's a funny thing to write, like an article in an old newspaper that aged quickly. I suspect that this will be wildly out of date within 2-3 years.
16 hours ago
It's a funny thing to write, like an article in an old newspaper that aged quickly. I suspect that this will be wildly out of date within 2-3 years.
There is this belief that in 2-3 years AI will be much better and all the gripes people have with AI use today will be solved. Honestly, personally, I think that optimism will age poorly. But to say it out loud at work or post publicly probably hurts my career prospects.
I think it's already out of date with verifiable reward based RL, e.g. on maths domain. When "correctness" arguments fall, the argument will probably just shift to whether it's just "intelligent brute force".
The set of tasks for which "correctness" is formally verifiable (in a way that doesn't put Goodharts Law in hyperdrive) is vanishingly small.
"stochastic genius"