Comment by _heimdall

3 days ago

> While nobody actually believed Putin would be dumb enough

I'm not sure why you'd say nobody thought they would invade. To me it was clear in December the year before when the Russian navy began sailing the long way around Europe, getting in the way of Irish fisherman and confirmed days before the invasion when they had stockpiled medical personnel and blood on the front lines.

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_heimdall

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anonymars  3 days ago

When the US warned, days before, of the imminent invasion, the broad reaction was still one of "the boy who cried wolf"

  • _heimdall  3 days ago

    And I didn't understand why anyone thought the warning was wrong. Who sends their navy around Europe, collects 100k troops on the border, and ships blood reserves to the front for a training exercise?

    • sofixa  2 days ago

      Because it was just so dumb. Putin had previously done things to sabre rattle to get concessions, and talks were happening at the same time, so many thought he wouldn't be dumb enough to invade, but just wants more to negotiate.

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lotsofpulp  3 days ago

It was clear when they captured Crimea.

  • _heimdall  3 days ago

    Sure that plays a role for sure, though I don't think anyone in 2014 was predicting a broader invasion 8 years later.

    • lotsofpulp  3 days ago

      Crimea was Feb 2014, and then in Jul 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was shot down by "pro russian separatists" in eastern Ukraine. Seems like they were laying the groundwork for a while. I have no idea what portion of this wikipedia article is true:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya_(confederation)

      But it seems Ukraine had questionable control of the eastern parts of the country long before the 2022 "official" invasion.

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