Comment by 827a
14 hours ago
The real problem, which I think the article does a poor job of making clear: Tesla sold millions of cars before the current generation Hardware 4 vehicles with $10,000 full self driving packages which never really materialized convincingly ‘full’ self-driving capability. There’s fair arguments for the HW4 vehicles not having FSD either, maybe because it needs to be supervised or isn’t perfect or whatever. But the HW4 experience is good enough that I don’t think many HW4 owners are angry; it’s by far the best consumer self driving experience you can buy, and is very good. It’s the HW3 owners that got screwed and absolutely deserve money back.
> the HW4 experience is good enough that I don’t think many HW4 owners are angry
Selection bias. The only people buying Teslas anymore are people who can explain away a Nazi salute. They'll explain away anything bad about HW4 as well.
On the recent earnings call they did finally acknowledge they will have to upgrade the hardware in HW3 cars so they can fully self drive.
The flayed the solution of “popup factories” in cities across the US to carry out the upgrade.
Seems like HW3 has been pretty good since FSD v12.3+ came out.
If we describe HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD, then HW3 is probably 95% of the way.
Though approaching 100% (maybe 2x the human standard) is going to be exponentially harder to get to.
> HW4 as 99% of the way to true FSD
If we describe current LLMs 99% of the way to AGI and full sentience then https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA was probably 90% of the way.
I'm reminded of the adage about getting 80% of the way through shipping a product, and then doing the other 80%...
Yeah that's what I was referring to, the last 10% takes 90% of the time. Or the difficulty of getting from five 9s to nine 9s.
In this case the final 1% is 200x harder than getting to the initial 95%.
I live in a suburban area in a cold climate. Based on what I've seen of "FSD," it's essentially unusable on most of the roads near me, and doubly so in winter. This is even true on larger highways/freeways, as when snow falls the camera systems can't see the lane markings. Not to mention the fact that some of those roads are so badly maintained that the lane markings are faint to nonexistent.
I don't think Tesla can honestly claim 99%, or 95%, or even 50% of the way to FSD until they solve these issues. Until they do, it's just a fun toy. After all, years ago they were claiming that you'd be able to "summon" a Tesla sans driver from LA to NYC. What happens if there's a winter storm on the way?
it is not even a fun toy because fun toys are fun for kids and no sane person would use FSD wirh a kid in a car