Comment by kqr

If this were the end of the story, that would be a correct interpretation of the situation.

At Amazon, something like this is likely a closely watched experiment. They knew it would incentivise waste. But they don't know what the other effects will end up being. Nobody knows -- this thread is full of loose speculation. So Amazon runs the experiment and collects the data.

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The annoying thing about goals and incentives is that they can either be phrased in terms of input metrics (behaviours within our control) of output metrics (the outcomes we want). Input metrics are bad because they lead to skewed incentives and gaming the metrics. Output metrics are bad because they're largely affected by chance and external circumstances. (This indeed means a goal cannot be SMART on its own, because A and R are typically in tension.)

Amazon knows this. Their WBR structure is essentially about trying to set goals and targets for input metrics, and then carefully observing how input metrics correlate with output metrics. They're using a semi-scientific process to tease out the causal structure of their business. I would assume this token target is followed very closely to learn exactly what its effects are on output metrics that drive revenue and cost.

For more on this, I thnk the best public writing is Carr's Working Backwards and Chin has written about it on Commoncog too.