Comment by kryptiskt
17 hours ago
This reads like Apple fanfiction to me.
> But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it.
I have to think that the RAM suppliers wouldn't be that easy to intimidate with threats, since they know perfectly well how few alternatives Apple has. And they are also perfectly aware that Apple will play hardball with them when the market turns, regardless of whether they were nice to Apple now.
Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.
They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.
No RAM, no profits. Apple has vertically integrated in the past for less reason than this.
Moreover it's a massive economy of scale, while their consumer electronics competitors are busy fighting a losing battle against the server market for chips, Apple can undercut them, grow their market share and get even more service revenue.
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SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.
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In the Tim Cook era when Apple needs to lock down the supply of a commodity part, they have a history of buying a dedicated manufacturing line for a manufacturing partner.
DRAM fabs are their own well-known specialized process which is covered by the DRAM companies. It doesn't make sense to start a competitor for it.
There's a bunch of chinese DRAM companies currently playing catchup to get closer to modern densities. Could Apple buy one of those? I'm guessing there would be regulatory hurdles to that on both sides of the pond.
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Which is funny, since until relatively recently DRAM was what you produced in fabs with processes that weren't competitive enough for CPUs anymore.
It's crazy to think Apple would actually fab memory (or TSMC for that matter). It's an entirely different process than logic.
They probably could, but time is a big factor.
Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed.
They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-12...
The original article is baseless speculation proven wrong by news announced in February.
> Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates.
Hardly. While it may be fan fiction, or speculation, Horace has been researching and writing about Apple's operations for decades. I tried listening to his podcast years ago and the discussion at the time of Apple's supply chain movements was extremely detailed to the point where it wasn't even listenable for me.
"Our team has over 25 years of daily research on Apple Inc"
https://asymco.com/about/
It's literally all they do