Comment by TimorousBestie
3 days ago
> The models get better and better, Chinese open source is falling further and further behind American companies.
Prior restraint is going to put a damper on American state of the art for the foreseeable future.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-ai-ad-hoc-prior-restraint-...
In the longer term, companies won’t be able to build AI infrastructure fast enough to keep up. The construction capacity isn’t there. The hardware production capacity isn’t there. Raw materials, energy, water—not enough of any of it. The supply chain is a fragile, grotesque joke.
> as long as American companies control the talent flywheel
The companies are eating their seed corn. Senior devs are going to age out and there won’t be enough juniors coming up the ranks to replace them. The oncoming demographic crisis multiplies this problem.
Americans decided to sabotage their own public education system for generations. They were able to bridge the gap with foreign undergrad/grad students for a while but that well has been poisoned, probably for good.
Thank you for sharing the article, it's an interesting perspective and I'm inclined to agree with the point about prior restraint.
I'm sad that America is making it more difficult for foreign talent to come in. But with the flip-flops between D/R in the white house it's really hard to predict what immigration looks like even 5 years from now
I see two possible outcomes:
1. People really voted for getting violent criminals out, in which case there is going to be a massive backlash against the current policies.
2. People are really convinced that immigrants are making their lives worse, in which case as things actually get worse with the lack of immigration, they will probably double down. Politicians can keep using immigrants as a scapegoat, and fascism here we come!
> But with the flip-flops between D/R in the white house it's really hard to predict what immigration looks like even 5 years from now
Flip-flop means unsafe. Flip flop means you are one election away from being mistreated in a lawless way by goverment and bad luck away from being mistreated by their sympatizants.
Unless there are actual prosecutions and those made to stick, there is no flip flop safety.
And given one of parties is increasingly anti-democratic, unless there is flip and actual change of constitution next flip in next 3 years, flip flop will stop at the fascist side.