Comment by 827a

The CFTC uses the following argument in their press release: [1]

> This Minnesota law turns lawful operators and participants in prediction markets into felons overnight,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Minnesota farmers have relied on critical hedging products on weather and crop-related events for decades to mitigate their risks. Governor Walz chose to put special interests first and American farmers and innovators last.

Its an interesting angle; how do you draw the line between "a prediction market about what the temperature will be" and a futures contract that's used as a legitimate hedge? Minnesota's law is EXTREMELY broad in its definition: [2]

(e) "Prediction market" means a system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract, including but not limited to: (1) an athletic event or game of skill, or portions thereof or individual performance statistics therein; (2) any game played with cards, dice, equipment, or any mechanical or electronic device or machine; (3) war, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises, or the ancillary effects thereof; (4) any event or events happening to a natural person or group of people;(5) a federal, state, or local election, or the actions or conduct of the federal, state, or local government and the government's agencies, employees, and officers; (6) legal actions, including but not limited to a civil or criminal suit, grand jury action, jury trial, settlement, plea, or conviction; (7) the death, assassination, or attempted killing of a person or group of persons, or mass casualty events; (8) short-term weather events or conditions; (9) events in popular culture, including but not limited to awards and the date a piece of entertainment will be released; and (10) whether a person will make a particular statement.

There's a bunch of exceptions that reference prior laws, which I haven't gone through, though they'd likely have to exempt, you know, Chase Bank, because if not that definition would clearly disallow Stocks.

[1] https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/9233-26

[2] https://www.revisor.mn.gov/bills/94/2026/0/SF/4760/versions/...