Comment by dozerly
11 hours ago
I think as long as it continues to be tangibly better these people will still exist and the intersection will continue to be valuable enough to survive.
11 hours ago
I think as long as it continues to be tangibly better these people will still exist and the intersection will continue to be valuable enough to survive.
> as long as it continues to be tangibly better these people will still exist
Sure. But how long will that last? LLMs are getting better at programming much faster than I am.
Imagine a plot with time on the X axis and LLM skill on the Y axis. The line goes up and to the right. On the left is GPT3, or GPT3.5 with the very first glimmers of programming ability just a few short years ago. In the middle is Opus 4.7 now.
Where's the intersection point, where AI skill is higher than that of humans? Less than 10 years. I'd guess less than 5 years.
I think the problem is is that coding is not wholly a 'writing code' problem. It's a translation from idea to outcome. Often I think the bad code generated by an LLM is less to do with it's 'ability' and more to do with an instruction that hasn't adequately accounted for the possibility of what code satisfies the criteria. I'm not sure how a newer model can improve on this per se - sure there will be imrpovement on outright mistakes but for me at least, that's been and gone with more or less with any model released in te last 6 months.
I was coding something with claude the other day. It got the program working by all externally observable metrics, but when I went into the code it was full of DRY violations. It made a bunch of interrelated - but separate - traits for some concepts which simply didn't fit together.
I asked it to look at the code and come up with better factorings, but it failed. I ended up manually reworking several thousand lines of code myself, via my IDE. It took days.
I'd like a claude-of-the-future to be able to come up with beautiful ways to factor the code itself. Amongst the correct solutions, pick one which is conceptually simple. Write the code in a way that it makes subsequent changes easier to write. If I were doing RL with claude, I'd consider directing it toward solutions which allow subsequent changes to be implemented with as little effort as possible.
I think a better way to think about it is - what are the invariants to our current architecture? Why can't you tell Claude to build you a 1B$ business, make no mistakes?
I have no doubt they will be better programmers than almost every human that has ever existed. But the role of a SWE will expand to fill the gaps that the LLM paradigm hasn't filled:
- Accountability
- Long term architectural vision, goal setting
- Everchanging business context
- Mercurial executives, people problems, relationships etc...