Comment by hansmayer
1 day ago
Reasonable things? He said the same shit over and over over the last several years. Yes, lets hold him accountable - you don't make such "oopsies" accidentally, several times in a row.
1 day ago
Reasonable things? He said the same shit over and over over the last several years. Yes, lets hold him accountable - you don't make such "oopsies" accidentally, several times in a row.
Seems pretty reasonable to me. Timescales are hard for anyone to predict. He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance. Surprisingly, he underbought compute and now has to scramble to secure it from xAI or wherever he can. So he was overly conservative...
> Timescales are hard for anyone to predict
Indeed. That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD
> He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance
Ah well, that explains it. For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.
> That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD
10x revenue growth per year, even more this year...his predictions about when agents will claim SWE e2e work are his speculations, relevant because people care about what he thinks as he is closer than anyone to the leading edge of the technology. It's also important for him to be as accurate as he can about this because he has to put his money where his mouth is. He has to sign the right amount of compute otherwise he screws himself. He got it wrong in the opposite direction that you're implying, so at this point it sounds like you are more interested in your axe to grind than the truth on the ground.
You think enterprises are adopting CC because they think "oh this will replace my SWEs I can fire them"? That's not happening at major companies. They buy CC because it's useful and the writing is so clearly on the wall in so many data points that to suggest otherwise is a bit silly at this point.
> For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.
You, as a leader of a company, don't have to make predictions? Don't have to make bets about what the best thing for you to do next year? That must be incredibly nice.
Amodei and everyone else need to plan compute and plan their products and roadmap. You want him to....not do that?
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