Comment by aNoob7000
1 day ago
Add Anthropic and OpenAI to the list. Companies that are bleeding money.
Personally, a company should be making money before adding it to the index.
1 day ago
Add Anthropic and OpenAI to the list. Companies that are bleeding money.
Personally, a company should be making money before adding it to the index.
Interestingly, these are the exact rules they're working to overturn: currently, no matter how many stupid accounting tricks you pull off, you need to actually be profitable to be included in the S&P 500.
[flagged]
This is a fallacy. OpenAI and Anthropic would not continue to make money indefinitely by simply sitting still for the simple fact that their models can easily be distilled by competitors. Their value is contingent on sitting at the top of the leaderboards and staying there such that the marginal value of their AI is better than the mostly Chinese competitors.
And b/c these chinese competitors are open weight, the layer below frontier class AI is totally commoditized.
If there were a recession, the first thing enterprise customers would do is setup Kimi or Deepseek rigs. It would be a race to the bottom and no one would be profitable.
A similar phenomenon happened with rail lines in the 1850s where irrational exuberance led to a massive overbuild of rail lines, followed by a race to the bottom and the bankruptcy of almost all players. In the end, banks ended up absorbing the few companies that survived.
Because they're doing the fancy equivalent of selling $20 bills for $15 and chirping about how high their revenue is. You, me, and everyone else could generate $inf revenue with that strategy, but that doesn't make it a viable business model.
Right.
At this point burying money in jars in the back yard and forgetting where some are has a much higher rate of return.
6 replies →
Really depends on the valuation and P/E they plan to list at, and some estimate of their future revenue story. I love Codex and Claude Code but OpenCode/Kimi is wildly cheaper and 90% as good.
Didn't we have a story just yesterday that Anthropic's run-rate now looks like $49 billion/ year and they might have their first quarterly profit? I would suggest if you have billions of dollars coming in the door and aren't breaking even, maybe you do have a small leak somewhere?
Part of that potential profitability is reportedly coming the fact that they get a discount on compute from SpaceX in May and June. Anthropic and SpaceX signing a contract where Anthropic leases datacenter capacity for the low low price of $1.25 billion per month, except for the first two month when they get some sort of discount.
Anthropics expected profitable quarter just happens to be the quarter were their cost is artificially low?
> Because from where I'm sitting it seems like you're just operating on hopes and feels.
I hate these flippant comments. Similarly, from where I'm sitting it seems you're struggling to disentangle revenue from profit.
I buy 50 billion of hardware. Make 45 billion back in year 1. My losses are 5 billion. I Pay of all my creditors by year two. Then spend another 55 billion on hardware in the second half of year two. My profit is at this point zero.
<you are here>
By year three I am printing money.
It's not a flippant comment. It's basic math.
3 replies →
" But they could just not do anything and continue raking in the money."
Hahaha what a fucking bozo.
Log out and dont talk about valuation again.