Comment by panarky
1 hour ago
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong.
In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong.
There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their astounding growth and margins. For a long-term investor, Anthropic is looking a lot more like Google not AOL.
I can only hope the doomer narrative dominates until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation.
Vibes are almost always wrong. Ignore the vibes and focus on revenue growth rates and inference margins.
"until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation"
I doubt you will. Most likely IPO reference price will be like SpaceX's, 100x ARR or so.
You're better off buying Google who own a huge chunk of Anthropic at a much saner average.
Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004.
I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.
So you're raising the topic of vibes, to tell us to ignore them.
Most of the time, they're wrong half the time.
I don't think it's really doom and gloom, that's mostly on here.
The normies are all still excited/scared and the valuation based on secondary trading is going up and up.
Maybe not quite as crazy as the dot com boom but I'd say the current environment for AI and related equities is a lot closer to the mid/late 90s than 2004
Normies are on fire for SpaceX, where the economics are horrible and the hype is off the charts.
Normies have never heard of Anthropic, where the economics are incredible and doom vibes are pervasive.
> astounding ... margins
Citation needed for that one.