Comment by paulpauper
16 hours ago
People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.
The old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I’m not necessarily expecting a crash any time soon. (But we average a major correction, what? every 8 years? So if you keep predicting one long enough you will eventually have been right all along.) But I do feel comfortable saying OpenAI and Anthropic are overpriced. For more or less the same reason Cisco was overpriced in the late ‘90s. It’s not that what they were making wasn’t valuable; it’s that we got out over our skis a bit over how much of it the world could actually manage to consume in the immediate future.
> After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.
Groupon got to pretty much 100% penetration, still crashed and burned right after IPO. I think Zynga followed a similar trajectory.
Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't.
This is one of those arguments that is so vacuous you can apply it to anything and always be right.
> "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room"
> "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."
And people are right most of the time. For every actual bubble, there are easily a dozen "bubbles" that aren't in fact bubbles.
> people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't
History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.
Most bank runs tend to be driven by vibes, not numbers though.
The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.
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Nasdaq is 5.4x higher now than peak dotcom.
So just buy the dip if it actually crashes.
The headwinds are way worse now, though. Oil is choked, war is brewing, and corruption is at an all-time high.
US markets will keep superpositiong S-curves upon S-curves upon S-curves. Just as Elon Musk does with his companies. Just ask Tesla/SpaceX bulls.
If note the dotcom boom lasted from about 1995 until 2000. Housing bubble longer. Theres no time table on when the bubble bursts, and the web didn’t die and neither did housing when the burst happened. It is just a reset and consolidation of overtly excessive speculation. It’s not like the bust leads to an end of civilization.
> People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023.
The bubble can't pop until after an IPO, and that doesn't mean "immediately after".
You can't have a run on a privately held company.
In 2004 people were predicting that the real estate bubble would burst and then nothing happened. Until it did.