Comment by JumpCrisscross
14 hours ago
> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...
Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.
14 hours ago
> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...
Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.
Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.
but this isn't "irrational exuberance", literally everyone I know paying and kind of attention has "rational dread".
In my opinion the amount of money poured into these companies is the definition of irrational exuberance. And even if you want to call it dread, once they start to deflate people will panic and flee.
But where else will people put their money?
That's not the problem, the problem is when they take it out of these companies, where it goes after that is irrelevant. Once the exodus starts prices will plummet and lots of people will lose a lot of value.
Somewhere safe. Gold, usually.
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I heard daffodils are where it's at.
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Because it is deliberately extracting cash from Mom and Pop into the robber baron's wallets?
Okay? Why does that mean a devastating pop?
Where were you in 2008?
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Because traditionally the pop is delayed while those who realized most of the gains attempt to offload the risk to other parties. Whether this works or not at some point it becomes an inevitable and self reenforcing feedback loop.
Just investing less in risky things on the run up means you personally perform worse so even in known bubbles you don't see reasonable slow downs instead of disastrous pops.
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Once the liquidity is transferred, that's it? There is nothing there (datacenter in space, that dude is really smoking some serious stuff), so the money will be spent/transferred and then there is no revenue/new sources of money.
It's the same scenario of a ponzi scheme. Everything looks fresh and fine until everyone realizes there is nothing in there.
Why would that pop the bubble?
Robber Barrons existed from like 1860 through 1915 and extracted the wealth of many people, including Native American tribe lands.
Like this shit can keep going until we decide enough is enough and actually change our society.
Not related - many robber barons went bankrupt in the severe economic crashes of the time, such as the Panics of 1873 and 1893. The Gilded Age continued despite bubbles popping.
I mean, isn't the definition of a bubble that it pops quickly? If it slowly loses value over time, its not really a bubble.
> isn't the definition of a bubble that it pops quickly?
There is no consistent definition of a bubble. We have no fundamental reason current valuations have to collapse suddenly.
Is there any definition of bubble that doesn't involve popping? That's literally the metaphor.
> We have no fundamental reason current valuations have to collapse suddenly.
I would agree, but i think that is just saying that the current situation is potentially not a bubble. Which may be true. We will only find out after the fact.
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