Comment by thenewnewguy
4 hours ago
> Same with most people "doing a startup" or "opening a restaurant".
While I mostly agree with your sentiment, I think there is an important difference. Unless you are attempting advantage play (99.99% of gamblers are not, and casinos ban the few that are), there is literally nothing you can do at a casino to make it a positive EV activity. No amount of skill, drive, effort, or anything other than pure luck can consistently generate profit at a casino.
A startup/business, on the other hand, can be effectived by your actions. Luck obviously plays a large factor, but you have some level of control over the outcome.
I don't think it really matters all that much if the restaurant's success can be attributable to skill at a 2% or 4% rate or whatever. For all practical purposes, since you only get one or two shots at doing that kind of thing in a lifetime, your chances are practically 0. You don't have the infinite resources to make 5% all-or-nothing return work. Focusing on the math aspect is ignoring that people are not mathematical creatures. The math is not used to analyze, it's used to justify, to construct a story that folks then use to delude themselves into believing. I can be a great poker player. I can run tight margins to make a restaurant work. I can use cocaine and not get addicted. I'm special.