Comment by putzdown
3 hours ago
One of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument. But no. He jumps. He leaps. He circles back. If the situation were really "Gosh why can't you see it?!"-clear, his explanation of the situation would be clear. It isn't, because it isn't.
> He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument.
That's exactly what the first (titled) section does?
Haha thought you were referring to the upsell at the start asking to subscribe to the newsletter for $70 / year. But yes it does call out the unprecedented amount of money getting dumped into AI.
What turned me off though was this paragraph:
> This is a hysterical era perpetuated by liars, cowards, imbeciles, craven boosters and the easily-fooled. Those excited about generative AI are either the victim or the perpetrator of a con centered around a technology to ingratiate at the highest cost possible.
That's a very bold claim. Really anyone excited about generative AI dude? That's just an absurd claim, and makes it sound like he hasn't used an LLM since GPT 3.5. It's just the language is so hyperbolic and angry that it's giving me more rant vibes that really hurt the tone and damage the (many valid) claims he's trying to make.
Really tried to read through this all the way, but man I'm just not in love with this guy. I feel like the frustration is clouding his judgement. This line is another one with a fact that isn't really grounded:
> so, you know, they only need to grow by 496% by the end of 2029!
Which isn't wrong, but also Anthropic's revenue increased from $1 billion in Dec. 2024 to $47 billion May of 2026. Which of course doesn't guarantee that it will continue to grow at that scale, but it's clear that there is a strong demand for what they are creating.
Idk, not really sure what my point is here. There are just so many facts and numbers quoted in here... It's a bit exhausting to refute a piece like this, when parts are genuinely correct, and parts are maybe subconciously exaggerated due to some emotional leaking into the argument.
I don't read Ed Zitron, aside from when he appears here on Hacker News, and I also find his tone to be over-the-top. I think we might agree on that much.
These articles are lengthy but, to my understanding, Ed's idea is...
* AI companies have committed to purchasing X amount of compute
* Data centers are being constructed to meet this demand, they'll need to charge amount Y
* AI companies do not have sufficient revenue to pay amount Y
IMHO this isn't surprising, personally the only real use-case for AI that I've seen is code generation or automated sales or scam calls. This doesn't seem like a big enough market for the huge dollar amounts I'm seeing thrown around.
I'm curious why you think Ed is so far off the mark on this. To me, it seems like we are headed for a big correction on the whole AI thing.
I don't know if Ed is far off the mark. But this article does nothing to help illuminate it.
He mixes estimated capex spend by like 3 different sources with actually commitments by the LLM providers.
He talks about how crazy it would be for ai providers to double revenue every year. But openai is doubling every 9 months and anthropic is doubling every 3.
It's obvious if AI consumption stops growing today those companies are in trouble, and if AI consumption keeps growing at current rates they'll be more than fine.
Most people expect growth rate to slow, just no one knows by how much. This will determine if there is an over build out or not.
Not the OP but Zitron makes clear errors:
• He seems to think that the moment Nvidia release new hardware, all existing hardware becomes worthless. It doesn't and there are plenty of tokens being served by old GPUs. This makes all his calculations about how quickly datacenters have to pay off useless.
• All his numbers about costs, revenues etc are guesses or attempts to work backwards from off the cuff and frequently inconsistent comments by tech executives. They could easily be very far off.
• He doesn't seem to understand that datacenters have never been full of hardware on their opening day. A lot of his attacks revolve around this confusion - he learns that an opened datacenter isn't yet at full load or fully equipped with GPUs and thinks that means it's been delayed. I remember when Google first opened their facility in the Dalles, it took years for it to completely fill with machines.
> All his numbers about costs, revenues etc are guesses or attempts to work backwards from off the cuff and frequently inconsistent comments by tech executives. They could easily be very far off.
Agreed, but I'd argue that Ed doesn't have much else to work with. I'd like to see journalists take this tack and start asking these executives to either back up their statements or back down from them. They should be held accountable for their statements.
Even if we dial down these numbers by a magnitude they are still insanely large and the AI companies do not seem to be making enough money to balance things out.
> He seems to think that the moment Nvidia release new hardware, all existing hardware becomes worthless. It doesn't and there are plenty of tokens being served by old GPUs. This makes all his calculations about how quickly datacenters have to pay off useless.
I agree that older hardware from Nvidia doesn't become worthless when Nvidia releases new, more powerful hardware. I have to point out that it certainly loses a great deal of value and that's not nothing.
> He doesn't seem to understand that datacenters have never been full of hardware on their opening day. A lot of his attacks revolve around this confusion - he learns that an opened datacenter isn't yet at full load or fully equipped with GPUs and thinks that means it's been delayed. I remember when Google first opened their facility in the Dalles, it took years for it to completely fill with machines.
Is that really the case? I mean, I read about the build out of these data centers being delayed all of the time. I read this last week and it seems roughly in line with Ed's ravings:
> A JPMorgan analysis last month found that more than 60% of data-center capacity planned for completion in 2027 isn’t yet under construction, and another 7% is delayed.[0]
[0]: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/america-s-data-cen...
> He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument.
Which of the hyperlinks provided at the beginning sounded like what you wanted, and after you clicked it* how did it disappoint you?
The information you are describing is stuff I would not expect anybody to repeatedly duplicate across periodic blog-posts.
* (Yes, I'm being sardonic, but if you did bother to click them, then I'm legitimately interested in your answer.)
Oddly suspicious how this comment which was not one of the first comments which does not address the content at all but the tone skyrocketed to the top.
The tone is written as abrasive to anyone who doesn't already agree, which shows this is more of an emotional opinion piece than open minded objective research.
Hype cycles never last forever, but that doesn't mean all the value has been tapped by any means. The fact that modern GPUs can solve ridiculously complex high dimensional functions is a superpower in every possible field of research.
Agreed. Phrases like "journalists are currently gooning over OpenAI and Anthropic" really put me off. It's a poor attempt at modern muckraking; cheeky yet offering little substance.
He's just a Brit, writing in a style we write in. Sweary, comical, red-top. The Register did it for years.
I'm not a Brit, but I do enjoy British culture, including writing. I haven't been able to read any of Ed's rants to the end despite generally being on the cautious side
I don't think you know what "gooning" means. It's edgy Gen Z slang and has nothing to do with being British.
3 replies →
I particularly enjoy reading big banners asking me to pay for a newsletter subscription if I "liked" the content. Not if I found it interesting. Not if it actually provided any value whatsoever to me. No, you just have to "like" it. In other words, it is meant to be written in an engaging way and perhaps reinforce your believes like an echo chamber or even stir up certain strong emotions. Not to convey information. So, thanks, but no. I'm sure this opinion blog is very well written, but I don't think it is more well founded than anything else in this sea of opinions that sports a bigger garbage patch than the Pacific Ocean.
A big chunk of text asked for support on the basis of the article. I hadn’t read the article.
I scrolled down a bit to read. A popup took up my screen, asking me to subscribe, having read essentially nothing at this point.
I just left. Life is too short.
I know the HN guidelines discourage commenting on "tangential annoyances" on a website, but I think this issue is more than just tangential and more than just an annoyance.
When an author is this relentless in pushing you to sign up, there is good reason to suspect that financial motives are unduly driving an agenda.
I counted 8 such instances:
1. In the sidebar
2. At the top of the article
3. Popup in the middle of the screen after just a couple of scrolls into the body
4. Several paragraphs into the article
5. At the bottom of the article
6. At the bottom of the page under the comments section
7. Popup at the bottom of the screen after scrolling to the end of the body
8. (My personal favorite) Click the "user" icon in the bottom-right corner, which you'd normally expect to open an AI chat bot these days, and (surprise) you're prompted to sign up for a paid subscription
This sort of behavior just completely tanks any and all credibility this person may have.
His arguments on the numbers of AI are actually pretty solid.
I am still to see a solid counter to what he brings up there.
It's not entirely clear to me that the opposing argument is well-formed either. You constantly see numbers and statistics being wildly mis-used or overextrapolated.
Arguments have smells but rigour demands you investigate further. Zitron's smelly prose is, ironically, just the kind of stylistic distraction that AI can help condition; the further irony is that he will one day seem to have been right, for a year or two.
The money is indeed losing its mind over AI, and Zitron is a stopped clock. A correction is coming but the tool isn't going anywhere.
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