Comment by simianwords

2 hours ago

Why do you consider him trust worthy when sooo many of his predictions are false?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48447549

He was right about the cost changes, which he predicted quite some time ago. People shouted at him that he was making it all up - yet it was correct.

He was also right about AI-video and sora in particular being a fundamentally flawed idea.

He was also right about the dangers and problems with the general inaccuracy of LLMs and people relying on it.

Also about the expected triggering of ROI-checking in companies, such as Uber is doing now. His prediction is, ROI is negative. And I'm awaiting the society's consensus on that.

The general direction seems correct to me. He's not a technical guy and does not have the knowledge to critique models on a factual basis. I do wish he'd just focus on the stuff he _does_ know about, which is the financial side of things.

He is a much needed counterweight to the unhealthy hype going around, imho.