Comment by eries
9 hours ago
All of them? Really?
What's funny is when the book was published, I remember someone telling me that I should have included more examples of failed startups in the manuscript. I remember answering them, "Oh, I have. We just don't know which ones yet."
This is the difficulty of writing any kind of business book. There's just no way to use any company as an example to illustrate some principle without people misunderstanding that you're holding them up as the perfect or even great company. I use case studies to illustrate the concepts that I think are useful. I can't guarantee success any more than an athlete can tell you that if you study the way that Tony Gwynn hits the baseball, you too will be able to hit 300 in the big leagues.
That's fair but I felt you held up these companies and founders as these demigods running this well oiled operation and yet I remember looking up those companies and all quietly folded within a few years of your book coming out.
My point is you were not able to demonstrate any correlation with your suggested methods with startup success. A company could do the exact opposite of what you recommend and be successful. Or follow it to a tee and fail which is what all of them did (happy to hear about any counter examples here from the original book). So what exactly is the point if you can't even move the needle a little bit?
Academics have spent the last 15 years attempting to measure these effects, and it's just a very hard measurement problem. There are so many confounding variables. I would say the early evidence is supportive of the thesis, broadly speaking. In the long run, I expect we will eventually be able to speak about this in a much more nuanced way. For example, some of the elements of LS are much easier to test than others, and those have been found to be broadly effective.
This project may take decades, and yet leaders need guidance and useful mental models in the meantime. So, to me, the much more useful data is the literally thousands of founders (and other leaders) who have reported that they have found the framework useful in their own lives and companies. They may all be deluded, of course, but at some point I think we have to acknowledge that _something_ useful is going on here.
In any event, I don't give it that much thought. If a new theory emerges that proves more useful, or if new research gives entrepreneurs new and better tools, I'd be delighted. My only loyalty is to the truth.
You should, however, ( assuming your ideas are correct ) be able to look at a company and tell if it is following your ideas or not and will therefore ( assuming your ideas are correct ) be successful or not, and therefore make billions investing.
Have you done that ?
as nate bargatze says, if only it were that simple!