Comment by amelius
8 days ago
> at best you can have AI doing 90% of the work as long as an expert developer is driving things.
But that puts 90% of developers out of a job.
And I don't see why it couldn't become 99%.
8 days ago
> at best you can have AI doing 90% of the work as long as an expert developer is driving things.
But that puts 90% of developers out of a job.
And I don't see why it couldn't become 99%.
No, you are ignoring my central point by assuming that the amount of software that is being produced remains fixed. Every other time we have increased software engineer productivity, we have responded by producing more software.
So it's similar to "Andy and Bill's Law" [1]: "What Intel giveth, Microsoft taketh away".
If Windows would stay the same (and not grow) it would be much faster on newer CPUs...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_and_Bill%27s_law
Interestingly, that link seems to say it was created for the opposite reason, that is, Intel was frustrated that Microsoft wasn't taking full advantage of their CPUs, not that bloat was steadily increasing.
Yes, it addresses your second point.
I'm not saying your entire point is invalid, just that half of it is not correct, and so things might turn out worse than expected.
It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.
Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer.
Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies, employing a software dev was simply not a thing.
Nowadays, your kindergarten might employ a full time or part time software engineer to build custom software. One dev can build a lot more a lot faster.
That said, I think the average or below average dev won’t earn $200k/year anymore. However, the top devs will earn more than ever. If AI increases an average dev’s productivity by 10x, then it will increase a top tier dev’s by 100x.
“ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ”
No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.
16 replies →
It's even better than accounting or lawyers, because good software engineers can build incredible businesses from scratch instead of being tied to the number of businesses that exist
SWEs are more leveraged than ever and we've seen comp drastically rise for top performers
Because there is so much money for kindergarten teachers, paying an extra salary for a software dev for every kindergarten will certainly lead to better outcomes. The computer programs will make up for the lost teacher economically by teaching the children instead of people, raising the market share of my local kindergarten, or enticing people to have more babies. \s
How much does the appetite for good* software need to grow to not have loss of jobs?
> It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.
...or if there's an increase of demand for software, but mostly of the kind that can be completely automated by AI, no need for developers.