Comment by defrost

> Highly unlikely. Just the energy cost of running centrifuges, let alone manufacturing them is impossible to hide.

And yet that has happened twice already. Eg:

NUCLEAR ANXIETY: THE BLUNDERS; U.S. Blundered On Intelligence, Officials Admit

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/13/world/nuclear-anxiety-the...

There are numerous large companies with the resources and technical know how to match either Pakistan or India's efforts here, companies already experienced in yellowcake extraction and complex production processing equipment manufacture.

> To put some more perspective, an LLM could show you how to make a Boeing 747 in detail, but the actual chance of someone making one with no tools and logistics would be 0.

Pakistan, India, and many companies have resources, tools, logistics experience .. I have no idea how this sentence is meant to meaningfully refute those facts.

> LLMs haven't changed the economic realities.

I don't recall mentioning LLM's and I remind all that the bulk of nuclear weapons development happened before LLM's were a thing.

FWiW there are better actual arguments why it is unlikely (but not impossible) for a non state actor to put together a nuclear weapon .. the comment above is not one.