Comment by kjksf

17 days ago

Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

That's not crazy because if past predicts the future, that revenue will grow quickly. At $8 billion/year it's just 7.5 years, which is a reasonable investment.

19 comments

kjksf

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acc_297  17 days ago

This is a linear regression relying on a couple years of data to predict 15 years in the future and I don't believe that the valuation is made on this basis.

It may be that spaceX is buying an operation that would realistically take 5 months and 100 million to copy in-house for 60B because the worry is that waiting 5 months might cost that much in some sort of lost opportunity. It also might be that in any negotiation SpaceX is viewed as incredibly cash-rich and so anything can be sold to them for inflated prices.

I really don't understand these companies valuations it seems like boardrooms everywhere are in a constant state of panic that they'll lose it all if they aren't growing a breakneck pace constantly.

potatototoo99  17 days ago

Not annual, annualized. Let's see if people stick to it knowing it belongs to Musk now.

  • 0xy  17 days ago

    Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before, and Bluesky is continuing to rapidly decline (-5% DAUs per quarter).

    I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).

    • disgruntledphd2  17 days ago

      > I wouldn't bet on Musk, but I DEFINITELY wouldn't bet against him. Anyone betting against him over the last 10 years has been viciously smoked (many short-selling hedge funds got wiped out completely).

      In terms of the stock market, definitely. Honestly though, all those people who said self-driving wouldn't be solved by now, that Tesla didn't have a great moat and that the Boring Company was profoundly stupid were in fact correct.

    • Capricorn2481  17 days ago

      > Many made the same prediction about Twitter, and it seems to be more or less the same or higher activity than before

      Where are you getting that? There's not a single piece of data out there that will tell you Twitter has increased in users. Not only have they visibly dropped in users, but it's becoming increasingly clear the site is Astroturfed with bots.

      The choice is not Twitter or Bluesky. Most people moved on to TikTok. I don't know a single person who uses Twitter.

      3 replies →

    • csomar  16 days ago

      Twitter did lose significant revenues. It came ahead on profit because it aggressively cut costs which is an interesting thing to do for Musk given SpaceX. Maybe he learned that profitability is over-rated?

bean469  17 days ago

> Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

This assumes that Cursor's annual revenue will be the same or higher for over a decade. It's not really like they don't have competitors

winter_blue  17 days ago

That revenue number is almost meaningless, since they give out tokens at a loss. Especially with Composer 2.5 tokens are sold at a steep loss. They could certainly grow to $8 billion/year, with this negative revenue / heavily subsidized subs, but what will happen if Cursor decide to be profitable, or maybe to even just break even?

funnym0nk3y  17 days ago

If past predicts the future people will drop it once it is in Musks hands. And as a token reseller that revenue is not that impressive.