Comment by ok123456

5 hours ago

This completely breaks down under the current reality of AI investment, as players large and small are no longer price-takers. The marginal costs of investment are not constant because we have finite supplies of GPUs, TPUs, memory, hard drives, and power. The Hamiltonian in equations 5 and 6 needs to account for this.

are you saying that previous technologies had effectively infinite supply?

  • It's not that supply was actually infinite, but you didn't realistically have situations where you said "I want to buy GPUs for a data center" only to be told "there's a 3 year waiting list."

    You might have two months after NVidia 3090s came out where they were short, but it is nothing like today.

    • Citation needed. Industries that faced multi year supply constraints in recent memory include: nuclear power, battery manufacturing, flagship commercial aircraft models, late-stage pharmaceutical safety certification, certain luxury cars, and more.

  • No. I'm stating where the paper's assumptions are clearly violated.

    AI companies are intentionally trying to monopolize the supply of inputs needed for R&D. This violates homogeneity of degree 1.