Comment by oblio
2 months ago
https://s.yimg.com/lo/mysterio/api/619866B692DE6F8A91F783066...
> Google has a market cap over $4 trillion
For the purposes of most financial discussions, the market cap can be ignored. It tells almost nothing about the business fundamentals.
> and it's 2025 financials were $130 billion profit on $400 billion revenue, which was something like 15% Y/Y growth.
Most of that growth, which has re-accelerated, is AI driven. Aka eggs in a single basket.
> $100 billion in equity and bond offerings is not betting the farm on AI.
That's on top of capex of $185bn in 2026. In 2023 it was $32bn, 2024 $52bn, 2025 $91bn.
All your financial alarm bells should start ringing.
Amazon is doing similar things.
> A lot of us on HN dismiss Oracle with good reason but it's also fair to say they've survived and thrived through the dot-com crash, the GFC and the pandemic until now. They're clearly doing something right.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/cost-i...
Oracle is the most likely to go bankrupt out of all these companies outside of AI labs. They've been very adept at financials until now, when they've bet the farm on explosive AI revenue and especially profit growth. If those don't materialize soon, bye bye Oracle! Which would probably make a great many engineer happy :-))
> For the purposes of most financial discussions, the market cap can be ignored.
If you issue $70B in stock, which was your point btw, market cap absolutely matters. $70B is less than 2% new shares issued. If it was a $100B company, it would be 70%. That's why market cap matters.
> All your financial alarm bells should start ringing.
Only if you start with the premise of "Google is imploding" and then go looking for evidence.
Oh, so we're using CDS rates as a proxy for alarm now? Ok, Google's rates are hovering under 50 basis points [1]. For comparison, this is only slightly higher than the sovereign debt of Canada [2].
[1]: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/alphabet-v...
[2]: https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/sovereign-cds/
I love how you completely side stepped the cash flow comment AND the graph.
It's all right, I spent years arguing against cryptocurrency boosters. I'll probably have to wait a few more years for AI boosters to be gone into the nether.