Comment by M3L0NM4N
4 hours ago
I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
4 hours ago
I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform.
Every time.
If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless.
I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
> I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
I once ran across the comment that if you simply predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you'd be correct 80% of the time. Not sure how true that is (can't find the source).
Allegedly momentum investing does pretty well:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing
(I'm more of an index guy myself.)
ye, the stock market isn't magic, it's just a collection of what people think. and people can be very wrong in a big way.
Buddy I think you missed the joke.
Off topic, but I love your username.
1 reply →
Not at all, if someone tells me that "This stock is historically likely to regress to and beyond the mean," it's information I can use to evaluate my risk tolerance. Just because a piece of information doesn't let you time the market like a psychic doesn't make it worthless, it's just not what you were looking for.
Many people who replied to you seem to have missed your joke. I appreciated it.
It is my curse.
Years ago, My daughter's science teacher said that school should teach a love of learning.
I replied 'I thought the point of school was to make productive worker units in society'
And while he explained to me why I was wrong I was thinking to myself 'great, now he thinks I'm a terrible person'
It seems I deadpan too effectively.
2 replies →
Once you lose, you have lost. Ok, but how does that help us predict when something will lose?
Yes, it is predictive. But only retroactively.
Sometimes people bring me things that are broken 'cause I like to fix stuff. They always say "it was just working!"
Tautologies 'R us
well I laughed
“When the stocks don’t go up they don’t match the market which generally goes up”
> I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
And Japan performed ridiculously well for over decades and then stagnated for decades after that, but it averaged out between the two periods:
> Ben Carlson: It's just a really long mean reversion. You got like 22% per year from 1970 to 1989 in Japan. Small caps in Japan did 30% per year for two decades.
> It's insane. The returns almost had to be poor after that. If you put them together, the boom with the bust, it's like almost 9% per year.
> It's kind of crazy. Over 50 years, the long-term worked. It's just that over that 20 or 30-year period, it didn't work so well.
* https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/412 (~4m20s)
Annualized 9% per year is pretty good: the S&P 500 has average 10% since 1957 (70 years). Is there anything preventing US equities from doing the same thing: great performance from 2010 until now, and then 10+ years of stagnation starting (theoretically) tomorrow. If you look at 2000s S&P 500 you got zero returns, and the only thing that would have saved a US domestic (only) investor was having a bond allocation:
* https://www.forbes.com/sites/advisor/2010/09/13/its-not-real...
This is why diversification is important. People talk about "US stocks" doing well, but have US industrials done better than non-US industrials? US finances or energy done better than non-US? Or are "US stocks" doing better simply because tech stocks specifically have done better? Perhaps a US allocation is really a tech sector play:
* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/should-your-portfolio-be-100-us...