> I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
I once ran across the comment that if you simply predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you'd be correct 80% of the time. Not sure how true that is (can't find the source).
Not at all, if someone tells me that "This stock is historically likely to regress to and beyond the mean," it's information I can use to evaluate my risk tolerance. Just because a piece of information doesn't let you time the market like a psychic doesn't make it worthless, it's just not what you were looking for.
Productive workers in society need to learn new things all the time. I can't think of any career that hasn't changed in my life. I recall a garbage man (sexism probably wasn't required even then, but I never recall females) hanging off the back of the truck while the driver drove to the next house - the driver today needs to know how to operate the arm on the truck that lifts my can. Fast food used to be cooked within 10 minutes of when it was thrown, now they obviously are keeping things warm for a lot longer.
If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless.
I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
> I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
I once ran across the comment that if you simply predict tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's you'd be correct 80% of the time. Not sure how true that is (can't find the source).
Allegedly momentum investing does pretty well:
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum_investing
(I'm more of an index guy myself.)
ye, the stock market isn't magic, it's just a collection of what people think. and people can be very wrong in a big way.
Buddy I think you missed the joke.
Off topic, but I love your username.
hey he hacked my computer his user has a home folder inside of /dev
Not at all, if someone tells me that "This stock is historically likely to regress to and beyond the mean," it's information I can use to evaluate my risk tolerance. Just because a piece of information doesn't let you time the market like a psychic doesn't make it worthless, it's just not what you were looking for.
Many people who replied to you seem to have missed your joke. I appreciated it.
It is my curse.
Years ago, My daughter's science teacher said that school should teach a love of learning.
I replied 'I thought the point of school was to make productive worker units in society'
And while he explained to me why I was wrong I was thinking to myself 'great, now he thinks I'm a terrible person'
It seems I deadpan too effectively.
Productive workers in society need to learn new things all the time. I can't think of any career that hasn't changed in my life. I recall a garbage man (sexism probably wasn't required even then, but I never recall females) hanging off the back of the truck while the driver drove to the next house - the driver today needs to know how to operate the arm on the truck that lifts my can. Fast food used to be cooked within 10 minutes of when it was thrown, now they obviously are keeping things warm for a lot longer.
Poe's law apply to real life too.
Once you lose, you have lost. Ok, but how does that help us predict when something will lose?
Yes, it is predictive. But only retroactively.
Sometimes people bring me things that are broken 'cause I like to fix stuff. They always say "it was just working!"
Tautologies 'R us
well I laughed
“When the stocks don’t go up they don’t match the market which generally goes up”