Comment by ruperthair
6 hours ago
As much as I hate the source of the tariff policies, from an uneducated outsider PoV, they do seem to be causing fewer dollars to leave the country in imports.
How does it feel from an insider perspective? Are the increased costs on imported items and dependent services worth it for a bit more local investment?
No company can plan based on the tariffs. There is zero guarantee that then next government won't revoked them or that the current one won't flip-flop. Local manufacturing doesn't swing on a 2-4 (or 6 or 8) year timescale. There needs to be consistency.
The company that moves (or starts) manufacturing here today might get run out of business when/if tariffs are repealed and their competitor already has production lines in other countries ready to go. Heck, the factory might not even open before the winds shift.
No one can accurately plan with the uncertainty.
All the big names like Apple are just paying lip service to this. They are throwing, quite literally, pocket change or funds from the government (like CHIPS, which was less ham-fisted than the tariffs IMHO but still not something that's going to change the landscape overnight) at these endeavours to appease the current admin in favor of reduced/removed tariffs on _their_ products and good PR.
If congress wanted to actually do their jobs instead of both them and the judiciary abdicating their responsibility to the executive branch then _maybe_ we'd have a chance in hell. Until then you can look forward to more flip-flopping as the government changes and the smaller companies continuing to be ground under the heel of large corporations who can weather (or bribe) their way out of the tariffs.
Any company should definitely be planning for the inevitable decline or elimination of China as a production and/or trading partner.
If not caused by politics, then by demographic crash.
I'm curious why you think China will decline or be eliminated, I always thought that China was a reliable as a production/trading partner and that they planned for decades ahead with programs like Belt and Road Initiative unlike western politics that only looks as far as the next election. Very open to correction on this though, thinking about it not sure what formed my opinion on this.
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That's already happening for the big players, or at least Apple anyway. A big chunk of iPhones are now made in India, Airpods, iPads, macbook assembly is now largely happening in Vietnam and Thailand.
Granted, I don't think continuing to shift to places with slave wages is a good thing overall, but we need complete factory automation to solve that problem (the problem of wanting cheap goods AND ethical labor). But the major players have seen the writing on the wall ever since covid lockdowns and have been slowly moving out of China since.
Labour is one part of the equation. China has really well-designed supply chains and economic zones, where getting access to related components just means walking/driving few minutes down the road. They have made huge strides in robotics as well, so the argument for demographic collapse is weak IMHO.
> inevitable decline or elimination of China as a production and/or trading partner
I don't think this will happen anytime soon, that companies will need short-term planning.
can you explain more on this "demographic crash" because I am not in the loop. Are you talking about population decline which I'm sure will have some effect but elimination?
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Over what timescale? Is the presumption that China, the country of one child policy, will do nothing about the problem?
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That isn't 100% true, maybe 99% though. Anyone paying attention to politics for the last 40 years would have seen that there has always been an undercurrent of people unhappy with imports. This is the most power those people have had, but they have always been there and got significant political attention. There have thus been signs to be aware of, and those signs are things a smart company will take into consideration - they may or may not act, but they should know and consider them.
But that's the current dollar-based system. Like the gold-based system before it, today countries as a whole have to have long-term balanced trade, as measured in dollars. That's what a great many countries demanded to keep the system fair. If need be, some temporary imbalances can be forgiven by the world bank, but not much.
Outlawing or taxing imports (=tarriffs) of course helps with this.
However, if you look at economic history this always slowly lead to problems that only got resolved by fresh loans (that's what the move to dollar effectively did), hyperinflation or wars.
Apple invested 3x the Marshall Plan into China. Imagine if they'd spent that on the US instead.
Did you get that quote from Patrick McGee's book "Apple in China"?
Wiki says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_in_China
I did a quick fact check. The Marshall Plan was originally 13.3B USD, or about 150B USD today.
You fail to understand that Apple investing in China is in their best interest - and then returned back to millions of shareholders. If investing in the USA would be a better ROI, there would be no need for any measures like this to force companies somewhere.
People in favour of tariffs make it seem like the best and wealthiest economy in the world is in a bad shape, and it is completely opposite, while failing to address the inequality issue with the wealth distribution.
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Then all this 3x amount would have had no ROI, China would have outdid the US comparatively.
Why would they spend that on the US??? This is an investment and they want maximum gain which is definitely NOT in the US.
I distinctly remember Apple having produced a video showing off an automated assembly line for PCB production for the original Mac. It's not like they didn't try it.
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Probably not much. The US doesn’t have the capacity for high volume manufacturing. We cost too much.
>Apple invested 3x the Marshall Plan into China.
Apple invested 3x that because they got 30x in return from the savings versus US manufacturing.
>Imagine if they'd spent that on the US instead.
Then iPhones would either have to be 10x more exsolve to keep the same profit margins or Apple would be broke trying to compete with Chinese made goods using US manufacturing.
Easy to imagine - phones would be 1.5x more expensive than they are now, from get go. The cheap electronics (and goods in large part) have been hallmark of "quality of life in USA" for decades; I still get iPhone and Lenovo laptops 40% cheaper than family members living in Europe.
However, it seems that Americans are so tired of growing prices that they are getting used to paying them. Just yesterday there was an article that summarized oil price drop 40% from when the war cooled down, but prize at the pump went down only 12%. The big oil explains this that people will buy gas anyways, so why lowering the price? I think we will see the same happening with electronics - Apple breaking news on $500B factory spending in USA is mostly because they believe Apple owners will keep buying Apple regardless of the price. They may be right... will see.
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> No company can plan based on the tariffs. There is zero guarantee that then next government won't revoked them or that the current one won't flip-flop. Local manufacturing doesn't swing on a 2-4 (or 6 or 8) year timescale. There needs to be consistency.
Indeed, but the role of a government is to steer/push private initiative in a certain direction.
Tariffs and stuff are steering private companies towards building stuff in-house (as in: "in the us").
Future initiative inconsistent with this directions will essentially be a sabotage of the US economy.
Tariff introduced by congress? Sure. Tariffs introduced by fiat? No.
The fact that a president can create them out of thin air means they can be removed just as easily. I'm not anti-tariff or anti-re-homing-production (where it makes sense) but the _way_ it was done is my problem. Additionally there was no ramp, it was 0->100 immediately. A bill passed by congress to slowly ratchet up tariffs or similar over a period of time would have a much larger impact IMHO. It would give companies the ability to plan instead of just react. The tariffs were enacted in a timespan that made it impossible to move production local before they went into effect. Additionally, tariffs being applied unequally is terrible, it just means whoever has the biggest bribes (solid gold plaque holders anyone?) or can pretend they are moving manufacturing back to the US gets an advantage.
The amount of power held in the executive branch is unacceptable. Just look at how they raided/repurposed the CHIPS act money to force Intel (which I have no real love for) to sell a stake to the government.
Authoritarian governments are bad for business.
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Well thought out strategic tariffs are ok. But this is knee jerk tariffs. Even in the best case scenario introduces a lot of uncertainty which freezes investing and decision making in general.
The American electorate seems quite happy to elect people who will sabotage the US economy, so that isn't any reassurance that it won't happen. Tariffs are currently going up and down based on a single man's whims.
Why would when when they can just bribe the current government to be exempt?
If tariffs were planned, steady increase on a long term we might see a good effect. Like tariffs were used before this trump admin.
The tariffs have been highly destructive to local manufacturing because in the US we mostly build complex things made out of simpler parts which we import. The cost of everything we build simply increased and as a result many businesses selling relatively higher margin, higher complexity products had to scale back or shut down.
More to the point, the notion that dollars leaving the country is a real problem is really a kind of primitive understanding of money. Dollars are something we control. If dollars leave the country, that means there is demand for dollars. We control the supply of dollars. We literally can’t lose, so long as people are still using the USD, which they’re less inclined to when we’re tariffing their exports.
Also, by definition, if dollars left the country then stuff came in. We literally traded bit flips in a database for tangible stuff.
Bit flips in a database = years of people’s labor and planning
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...and then whoever sold us the goods turns around and uses those dollars to bid up US assets. Next time you are bidding for a house, take some time to appreciate just how expensive those bit flips have made things.
It did make it easy to raise capital, though, which is nice.
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> We literally can't lose
Who is "we"? Trade deficit dollars are recycled into assets, which compete with exports in the balance of payments. If you have a big house and fat brokerage account, you win big. If you have a job building shit, you lose big. If you have a job building tradeable shit and a low net worth, may god have mercy on your soul.
If you want the full economist version, "Trade Wars are Class Wars" by Klein and Pettis
We is the country. Yeah, not everyone gets to win the same amount at the same time. The alternative is just maga communism (pathetic).
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Putting aside the lack of evidence that tariffs meaningfully reduced the US trade deficit as other posts here remarked, reduction of the deficit would be catastrophic for the USD based global financial system anyway so it's bad for the US and bad for the world.
Dollars can only be created in the US by the Federal Reserve or US banks. Since the USD is the currency in which most global trade is conducted, the US MUST provide USD liquidity to the rest of the world that they can exchange between one another and the US (cf. Triffin Dilemma). If the rest of the world has no dollars, e.g. an Indonesian company cannot sell goods to an Ecuadorian company settled in USD.
The benefits of this system to the US are enormous (cf. Exorbitant Privilege) since US can print dollars out of thin air and 'give away' these bytes in a database and receive real goods in exchange. Real goods that people spent energy and expended labor for, in exchange for bytes in a DB.
If the US stopped supplying dollars to the rest of the world, it'd first spark a massive financial crisis as companies that owe USD to one another default in a chain reaction. Afterwards, an alternate to the USD would emerge as 'hard money that everyone accepts'. Candidates for this currently are limited in the space of fiat, Europe and China are net exporters so they cannot supply EUR/CNY to the rest of the world in net just like a US with trade surpluses cannot. Possibly there could be a return to precious metal backed currencies. But in any case, in such an environment, US could no longer receive goods 'for free' in exchange for bytes in a database and its life standards would greatly suffer.
It's adding a huge amount of economic turmoil, businesses are not investing because there's no certainty, and there's no more "local investment" except in newspaper articles.
The turmoil comes not only from the fact of tariffs but from the manner in which the US operates tariff policy if you can call it that. It's the equivalent of button mashing your game controller. There is a low upper bound to the effectiveness, and this approach isn't just applied to tariffs. Firing scientists, blocking aid to children at random, musing aloud about invading NATO allies all adds up to wanton destruction of US soft power and reputation. The specific policies hardly matter in a shit storm of incompetence.
The tariffs haven't made any difference in the trade deficit. There was a large peak just before the tariffs went into effect but since then the deficit has been largely the same as it was before the tariffs.
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-a...
The biggest problem with the tariff policy is not the cost or even the uncertainty, it's the corruption. A single person should not have the power to dictate the terms of trade, because the rational play in such a system is for businesses that rely on trade to pander to that person, and that's corrupt.
It is useful for the president to have emergency powers. However he should have been impeached for abusing emergency powers in a non-emergency. Same for his invasion of Iran - Iran has been building long enough that he had plenty of time to go to Congress for permission if he thought attacks were needed.
Emergency powers should only exist for things that need a very quick response. There's no reason for tariffs to be an emergency power. There's no emergency so urgent that it can't wait for Congress to convene and pass a law enacting the appropriate tariffs. The only reason that power exists at all is some mixture of Congress being too trusting of the President, and Congress not wanting to actually pull its weight in the government.
Exactly — this is CHIPS Act logic, not tariff logic. But the uncomfortable reality is that even with massive subsidies, reshoring mid-node RF components is very different from leading-edge fabs. Broadcom's FBAR filters are important but they're not the bottleneck. The real choke point remains leading-edge lithography equipment and the talent pipeline. Having watched Asia's semiconductor ecosystem up close, the US can throw money at fabs but replicating the dense supplier networks around Hsinchu or Suzhou takes decades, not election cycles. Apple's announcement is smart PR, but it's incremental capacity, not a structural shift.
This comment is odd, not conventional — it reads suspiciously verbose, not consice.
This is more about the CHIPS act than the tariffs.
If Trump sat on his hands for four years, he'd have been the best President ever.
More usually expressed as "if he only played golf".
If you onshore production via tariffs while having low unemployment, you are basically forcing your population to build basic stuff despite them having better things to do.
This is somewhat justifiable with vital sectors like agriculture, but if you do this in an arbitrary way just for the sake of it you just make stuff more expensive and your workforce less productive for no gain.
Those dollars are not just vanishing abroad, you are getting actual stuff for them, and your citizens then don't have to spend their own time building it and can do something more productive instead.
> they do seem to be causing fewer dollars to leave the country in imports
Have you accounted for the dollars that are no longer re-entering the country due to boycotts or retaliatory trade policies?
We are losing a lot more manufacturing due to the new tariffs on industrial parts than we are gaining from tariffs on finished products
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-ta...
Steel tariffs are calculated to cost ~$900k per job saved. It also makes all other industries in the US that use steel less competitive in the global market.
Steel is particularly sensitive in rich countries. Ask yourself: Why haven't all steel plants closed in rich countries and moved to poor countries? Military.
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If it had been done with coordinated investment/lending from the government to spur domestic production it’d be a very good move. The economy is stalling (outside of tech) because there is no money for increased production domestically.
Chips are specifically excluded from the tarrifs.
Tariffs are in every way inferior to the prior administration's CHIPS act and IRA, which are in the process of being destroyed merely because they had bipartisan support.
> causing fewer dollars to leave the country
Might cause fewer dollars to enter the country too. Closed doors block both directions. Other countries are watching and responding in kind. Maybe not that much at first out of fear of retaliation but builds up momentum.
The tariffs have done nothing to improve the budget deficit (not even worth mentioning the debt) and consumer prices are higher than ever. We’ve seen no benefits.
Please provide sources for your feelings, as the facts all seem to indicate that the deficit is rising. As well as inflation. And the national debt.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
None of his promises ever come to fruition. Stop hoping.
It's just from articles like this and what I read on the DIY solar forums, so it's interesting to see the real numbers, thanks.
For some recent data, see the diagram "Semiconductor foundry capacity 8" & 12" - by foundry location (in %)" at [1] for a rough idea of kWpm (thousand 300mm equivalent wafer starts per month) for key countries/regions for 2024, 2025 and prediction for 2031. China and ROK are predicted in this report to have the largest overall market share increases to 2031.
For some more detailed data (hard to find it publicly available), also see the OECD report at [2], particularly pages 18 and 20 (as numbered). This report provides a breakdown of ~2024-2025 per-country/per-region capacity by chip type (power, analog, speciality memory, commodity memory, advanced logic, mature logic) and a prediction for pre-country/per-region upcoming capacity increases by chip type.
There are markets within markets of course. China dominates in power electronics which makes senses when you consider even just their domestic demand for electric vehicles and renewable generators. Taiwan dominates in advanced logic and exports pretty much all of it. ROK dominates in commodity memory and also exports pretty much all of it. When you compare populations of China vs. USA, the USA are/will be punching above their weight for analog and advanced logic chips, which is also where the focus of their investment is.
In categories such as power electronics and mature logic which China dominates, labour cost is much more important than categories such as advanced logic where equipment is the overwhelming cost. For this reason you'll find China (and maybe even India if they bother to get into the market) dominate these categories due to lower costs of labour. Traditional competitors in these categories such as Onsemi and STMicroelectronics have been hurting.[3]
It's hard to predict which announced/planned investments will go ahead and be impactful, for various reasons such as utilisation rates of fabs once built. But it'll be particularly and increasingly difficult to predict the future of semiconductor fabrication due to what is happening in China. China has expanded their domestic chip making equipment industry enough to mandate Chinese fabs use at least 50% Chinese equipment.[4] Over 2024 and 2025 the investment from China into chip making equipment was estimated to be 37-42% of global spend, so we're talking about 20% (or maybe higher up to 40%) of global chip making equipment spending not being readily observable.[5]
[1] https://www.yolegroup.com/product/report/status-of-the-semic...
[2] https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/report...
[3] https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/02/26/news-power-chipma...
[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-mandates-50-domest...
[5] https://www.semi.org/en/SEMI-Reports-Global-Semiconductor-Eq...
No.
This is about Taiwan, not tariffs.
$30 billion for “hundreds of jobs.”
Theater to keep Mad King Trump off their back.
> As much as I hate the source of the tariff policies, from an uneducated outsider PoV, they do seem to be causing fewer dollars to leave the country in imports.
Much has simply been replaced by nothing at all, i.e. businesses shutter rather than deal with the mess, or ride out until the midterms to see if sanity and rule of law returns at least in Congress. The only ones who actually make an effort are the big companies like Apple that for one need to stay in Trump's good graces lest he slaps them with foreign-asset crap like he did with Anthropic and OpenAI, but also need to divest from China and Taiwan for geopolitical reasons.
I'd encourage you to educate yourself.
Analysis of previous tariffs have found they cost a ton, drive prices up, and increase corporate profits.
The 2018 Trump washing machine tariff raised prices not just for washers but also dryers (12%), and cost $820,000 per job onshored.
A 2012 chinese tire tariff cost $900,000 per job onshored.
It's terrible business.
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20190611
Tariffs are only 10%. They're not 20,30,40% anymore. Supreme court struck those down.
So this is just a tax on imports for mostly the middle class.
Furthermore, this is the results of the CHIPS Act, which gave incentives for TSMC to build the Arizona fabs.